Will the official Minsk aggravation between Russia and the West?

Members: the chairman of the Belarusian registered in Poland Schumann Society Igor Lyalkov and teacher registered in Lithuania Euro Denis Melyantsou Humanities Institute.
Gloomy prospects for Russia-EU summit, bad talks in Moscow U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have shown deterioration of Russia’s relations with the West. This trend or a temporary phenomenon? In this regard, whether to grow the role of Belarus in foreign policy of Moscow? Minsk Will it use the latest situation in the relations of Russia and the West and return to its former friendship with Moscow?
Valery Karbalevich "Famous speech by President Vladimir Putin in Munich some experts dubbed the beginning of modern cool war between Russia and the West. Inconclusive EU-Russia summit talks in Moscow and Condoleezza Rice seems to confirm these conclusions.
Worsening relations Russia and the West — is any long-term trend or a temporary phenomenon? "
Igor Lyalkov: "I think that this trend is long. Togo" love "between the West and Russia, which was during the Yeltsin presidency, in the near term will not be. These cases to be more pragmatic, based on an economic basis.
This is partly justified anti-democratic tendencies inside Russia. The degree of democratization, which is presently exists in Russia — is the maximum that can reach this country.
Latest cool war, of course, will not. But the case will remain pragmatic and brand new Russian President, which will appear after Putin. "
Denis Melyantsou: "There are mixed a few moments. During 1-x, Our homeland is becoming more economically powerful state — first because of the high price of oil and gas. ‘Cause it starts harder to defend its national interests. These interests do not coincide with the interests of USA. As a consequence, there is a confrontation.
In-2, I believe that the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West — not long-term trend, and conjunctural phenomenon associated with the introduction of in the electoral period.
Authoritarian power RF controlled such as logic, as the Belarusian authorities. She needs to make the outer atmosphere of hostility, the fortress under siege. And such makarom blame for internal problems can be blamed on external factors. I think after the elections Our homeland will take steps to improve relations with the West.
A cool about war I would not read, because for its conduct might need rovnenkaya 2-sides. And Our homeland is currently weak to want with the United States.
With regard to non-democratic tendencies inside of, they have an impact on conflict thoughts. In this business field will deteriorate only at the level of rhetoric. But the conflict of interests between Russia and the U.S. slightly. "
Increase the role of Belarus in foreign policy of Moscow?
Karbalevich: "Last 10-15 years observed a pattern: if you do RF sharpened with the West, the role of Belarus in foreign policy of Moscow increased, relations between Russian and Belarusian management becomes more dense.
Take the most recent example. After the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which Moscow considered the result of an aggressive Western project, Putin decided to keep Belarus lowest energy prices in 2006. Can we expect that this pattern will work now? "
Lyalkov: "I think that relations between Moscow and Minsk will improve, but again at the level of rhetoric. Hardly Our homeland will return to strong economic support to Belarus. Certainly, there will be again a lot of discussion about the" Slavic brotherhood "during election campaigns, but less than that. "
Melyantsou: "I believe that relations between Minsk and Moscow have improved a little. But such things are more important to the mental sight. Indeed Russian electorate accepts Belarus as a last ally in the West, which can assist the Russian Federation in combating aggressive advent of U.S. and EU. Then Belarus prospects are. "
Minsk will manetyzavats military deal with Russia?
Karbalevich: "Lukashenko always enough good use deterioration of relations between Russia and the West. Can recall the situation with NATO’s eastward expansion, the Yugoslav conflict, the U.S. war with Iraq and so on.
At such times, the Belarusian very favorite presented himself alternately as a fighter with the West, Moscow criticized for indecision, without any diplomatic events read the address in the western states is what did not dare Russian favorites. And liked it a significant part of Russian society and elites, especially from the left flank.
And now a couple of times already Lukashenko mentioned plans razmyashchennya parts of U.S. missile defense in the Czech Republic and Poland, was that we together with Russia are preparing retaliatory steps.
Minsk will use this latest situation in the relations of Russia and the West, to return to its former friendship with Moscow and getting old economic preferences? "
Lyalkov: "I think, on This time, as before, Lukashenko will try to exploit this situation. In an atmosphere of conflict between Russia and the West, he heard as a fish in water.
You can predict that Lukashenko will do sharp statements adresok West. In this case, it would be anti-American rhetoric. Because Minsk is not interested at this point in the conflict with the EU. Maybe he will criticize Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, but not Germany. Lukashenko will appeal to the Russian community and limited for it to achieve economic preferences. But I do not believe he will achieve it. "
Melyantsou "No hesitation that Lukashenko will try to play on these contradictions between Russia and the United States. Trump He uses such as Russian military facilities on the territory of Belarus.
Think Belarus will incriminate the U.S. and that they undermine not only the safety of the Belarus-Russia Union, and European security. Lukashenko try manetyzavats military affairs with Russia. Moscow will continue international support for Belarus, but will not make economic preferences. "

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