Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gave his first message. What kind of trends in Russian policy can be gauged from this statement? What is the effect on the military-strategic situation in Belarus want Kremlin positioned missile "Iskander" in the Kaliningrad region? What to expect from the meeting of the Supreme Council of the Union of the country?
Members: Associate Professor School of Economics Andrew Suzdaltsev from Moscow and chief editor of the newspaper "Nasha Niva" Andrei Dynko from Minsk.
Valery KarbalevichValery Karbalevich"Today’s message from the President of the Russian Federation with a special enthusiasm expected as, in-1’s, it was the first in this genre performance of the new president, Dmitry Medvedev. Vo-2, the Caucasian war led to a new geopolitical situation in the world, a new placement Russia. B-3, there were new principled action in international processes: global monetary crisis is soon to swap the U.S. president. Which trends in Russian policy can be judged on the basis of messages Medvedev? "
Andrew SuzdaltsevAndrew Suzdaltsev"Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, formed in Putin, has changed in a brand new president. Changed only accents.
Namely, for the first time linked the problem of Moscow security associated with the war in the Caucasus, with the global financial crisis and announced a major culprit of both dilemmas South American Bush administration.
Message itself, especially foreign policy part, was insistent, relentlessly questions were raised about the protection of the interests of Russia. It was of a nature call newcomer South American president. But Our homeland is not alone here. With similar messages appear at the moment and other political leaders of the world. "
Andrei DynkoAndrei Dynko"With the message remains unclear balance of power in Russian Verkhovtsev. Say draft constitutional reform
which was suddenly sounded, under whom he: under Medvedev or under Putin?
In general, the message assured that, the previous policy of authoritarian rule. New proposals for constitutional configuration are contrary to European notions of democracy.
Our homeland as before considering himself as a rival, and maybe the enemy of the West. In this case, Belarus remains a battlefield, not a field of cooperation between Russia and the West. "
Karbalevich"Pay attention to the nuances of the military-political messages that directly relate to Belarus. Medvedev read the intention to place the missile" Iskander "in the Kaliningrad region. And here comes a few questions. According elected U.S. President Obama a question about placing parts of the U.S. missile defense in Poland and Czech hung. In this case the rocket "Iskander" — is the subject of bargaining with the U.S. or they will be located there anyway?
Does this mean that the territory of Belarus is no longer seen in terms of the South American response to the Russian military projects? By the way, the message is not remembered an agreement to develop a unified regional air defense system (NORAD) of Belarus and Russia. How could you to comment on these military-strategic nuances? "
Suzdaltsev"Already many years ago and the Belarusian authorities and the opposition stubbornly says that Our homeland of Belarus plans to use the area as a staging ground for asymmetric response to missile defense (BMD) in the United States of Europe. But question was not ever."
Karbalevich"This is hinted at salting of in Belarus Surikov, not to mention the Russian military professionals. "
Suzdaltsev"No, Surikov said, that the question is about nuclear weapons. But this matter is closed international agreements. Because of this debate — a fiction."
With regard to VOP is in the x-1, this kind of operating system. There is exchange of information, the Belarusian military friction in landfills Astrakhan region.
In-2, single air defense system is not the answer to the South American defense. C-300, which are in service in Belarus, in the best case, can shoot down missiles "Scud", which are not in Europe. Agreement to develop a joint air defense system was
prepared even 10 years ago. And it made no sense to mention it in the letter. "
Dynko"Medvedev’s statement of intent to locate missile" Iskander "in the Kaliningrad region caused in Belarus, unlike Poland or Lithuania, a sigh of relief. Indeed, many feared that our homeland would impose placing them in Belarus. In this case, our country would be drawn uselessness in her confrontation.
Even the Belarusian authorities have reacted rather reserved to U.S. plans to arrange elements own missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. After all, they do not threaten Belarus.
But if the case comes to implementing solutions to position missile "Iskander" in the Kaliningrad region? After all, money crisis develops, and will he have the RF resources to this operation? Also — there will be enough funds in the United States to build their facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic? "
Karbalevich"On Thursday, Secretary of State Alexander Lukashenko took allied countries Pavel Borodin, a day or open a discussion issues on the agenda of planned meeting of the Supreme Council of the Union of the country. Last week, during the meeting of Lukashenka stated that at this meeting in Moscow should open a discussion of principle, the main issues of the Belarusian-Russian relations. And when on the agenda shall be made a day or a trifle, and it is not necessary to gather.
Around this same idea Lukashenko reiterated during the meeting with Borodin. This probably means that the Russian side is not willing to open a discussion fundamentally issues due to a deadlock, the futility of their solutions, and Belarus insists. "
Suzdaltsev"The Belarusian side in relations with Moscow uses the usual arguments clip. B
one situation uses one argument, the other — the second. By the way, I agree with Dynko city, it is unclear whether the U.S. missile defense system created in Europe, will be located missile "Iskander" in the Kaliningrad region.
In Minsk are convinced that there are issues (for example, the Constitutional Act), which may encourage Moscow to become bait. And they can be solved by those prepyadstviya in which interested Minsk. Belarus needs money now. To get them immediately and skip past the allied commitments (recogniti
on of South Ossetia and Abkhazia), Minsk pulls the Constitution Act, waving it in front of Moscow and seeks to obtain funds.
Togo 1 billion dollars loan that Our homeland promised to provide to the end of the year, strong enough. There prepyadstviya to obtain funds from the IMF. After all, we must recognize that Belarus has entered a period of crisis, take some anti-crisis program from, and not just talk about economic liberalization. "
Dynko"For these statements Lukashenko worth craving drugs and thirst reverence. They fit into a demagogic style Belarusian management — read a lot of loud words. But nothing new in the Belarusian-Russian integration is not felt. Meanwhile Belarusian management have gained great success in the direction durennya head West. Immediately Minsk seeks to blackmail Moscow to get a cheap gas prices in the coming year. "
Tags: Our homeland, commentary