Drakakhrust: "Why was it necessary to bring the debt crisis with gas to such critical point — the danger of reducing the supply of gas? Like you generally characterize current statements of Alexander Lukashenko? Valery Karbalevich, word for you."
Karbalevich: "The crisis appeared suddenly. During the past year before the crisis came in the form of gun training harsh statements pressing services" Gazprom "and the Belarusian authorities were mutual danger in including and through the media. Now there was nothing per se, hard negotiations were secretly behind the scenes, the official positions of the parties did not actually voiced and hitherto unknown. Belarusian authorities hitherto secret information and that Belarus 7 months to pay 55 bucks for a thousand cubic meters instead of 100 (and with all this pretending that withstood price shock), hide the fact that the demand that the Russian great credit 1.5 billion dollars, and even information that "Gazprom" threatens to reduce almost twice the supply of gas. It was only now made public for the public. It seems to me that the calculation was based on the Belarusian authorities to several reasons. In 1-x is the horror of the default, the desire to have in store exchange, so as not to fall at the end of the banking system if the rate will fall. In-2, was the calculation of the Russian campaign and the fact that Russia did not cost anything to make concessions. If Belarus 460 million — it means really huge, then for Russia, which is awash in petrodollars, these 460 million or 1.5 billion debt loan — this is generally a penny. Well, the Russian side decided to finish the job Putin translate business with Belarus to a market economy. And because Moscow is now Belarus decided not to indulge, so let not pay once, later Belarus will not pay at all. "
Drakakhrust: "Vadim Dubnov, during those negotiations, which read Valery, the Belarusian side stubbornly assured partners that Belarus can not pay. Lukashenko now opened secret, saying, Belarus and was not going to pay full price for gas. This, along him, Putin has said he first year. So why is brought up to the critical point at which it became clear that the funds still have? "
Dubnov: "I agree with Valery. I would not even referred to this crisis, so there is nothing sudden. This calendar predicted problem. Question is — is that we do not know what in fact arrange Lukashenko and Putin. Maybe , then the position and have not been agreed upon, and all the expected logical conclusion when can be forward with their variations interchanges. 460 million — is in my opinion, is not a deadly amount Belarus and, in principle, if desired Lukashenko could collect it, if I really wanted to pay. He deliberately chose to do so. It seems to me that we are dealing with a long intrigue, whose name is "Beltransgaz" and Moscow’s ambitions in general privatization in Belarus. Optimists hope when signing gas agreement in late 2006, Our homeland that receive half of the shares of "Beltransgaz" I think that at the moment these hopes will be readily dispelled. Valery completely right when he says that once paid — and you can not pay later. But I would add that Lukashenko has reason to hope for the success of such a strategy. I believe that after this demarche, he still would find some means will be calculated by bit, but the crisis will continue to gain momentum. "
Drakakhrust: "Vadim, here you have said about some intrigue in the bilateral relations. In your opinion, what does this have intrigue Lukashenko’s words, which is not just a cold stated that we will pay 460 million dollars, and read and that" Our Belarus wants to privatize homeland "and that Putin broke his promise to give credit to that one loan that offers Our homeland, Belarus is not satisfied. Eventually, there was quite a colorful tirade about afterdny Prime Minister’s visit to Moscow was Sidorsky humiliation, and that Lukashenko ordered the premiere of "general will no longer travel to Moscow."
Dubnov: "Maybe Moscow slightly overestimated the importance vnutribelorusskie intrigue with the imminent resignation Sidorsky, the dependence of its destiny to visit Moscow and loan arrangements. Maybe calculations were that Sidorsky fired and put someone more docile. On my opinion, this is a misunderstanding of the Belarusian situation in general. But this is not news. Essentially news in this affair is not nothing. All words, all the answers Lukashenko written off as a blueprint, with those declarations that recent years sounded every half year. The only thing that fascinating here — is a threat to take loans from Western banks. I do not think that the West will find Lukashenko loans cheaper than in Moscow, I do not think it’s more profitable to give him credit Chavez (that is completely incomprehensible) or Iran or China, but still fascinating question itself in the plot to blackmail. Lukashenko enriches own arsenal, but, in fact, the situation works for Lukashenko. concerned West gas situation he taught 2-experiences of recent years. Hardly accept this form of real concern assistance to Belarus , including a cheap loans, but some support, at least huge than six months back, I think he’ll get. "
Karbalevich "Alexander G., as usual, played a role as a good actor. It is clear that when the war started, it must be conducted according to the rules of military art. Therefore, here and in the address accusations of Moscow, as usual, very tricky and has plans naizloveschie against Belarus. The whole set of tools that Lukashenko uses during the crisis, and it is currently used. Maybe behind the scenes really dealt with the privatization of Belarusian companies more profitable. Had read about it and the media, and experts at the moment about this and says Lukashenko, they say, Our motherland wants to privatize the whole of Belarus. Questions about debt and loans were apparently linked to the issue of privatization of Belarusian companies Russian companies. I think that Moscow had overestimated the extent of the economic crisis in Belarus and Belarusian President willingness to sur» no serious concessions on the issue of privatization. This may be the main reason for the current crisis. "
• Reduction of gas supplies to Belarus has really avoid, 1.08.2007 • In Russian gas Lukashenko borrow Chavez, 1.08.2007