Number of games postponed
Drakakhrust: "Another conflict between Belarus and Russia in the gas debt if not, then, at least as it looks, was most acute phase: Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on the orders started to pay the debt," Gazprom "has postponed reducing the supply for the week. As usual in such cases there is "childish" question: who won and who lost? And precisely who won what and who lost what? "
Dubnov: "Well, the game is postponed. It will last a week later, and six months later, because the rhythm is set long. Strike can only preliminary results. Our homeland is not lost, because for her this game is a win-win principle. And win it it can not, because contrary to common belief, the case of Russia and Belarus — it makes no submission, and symbiosis. Because Our homeland on the basis of incorrect concept lowers your chances of success in relations with Belarus and Ukraine.
As for Belarus, the shifts are also small. I think that Lukashenka consciously went for the conflict. He probed the soil probed mood in Russia and in the West. And if his goal was to learn the position, then he scored some points. "
Drakakhrust: "Alexander Klaskouski, within a few weeks the Belarusian side stated that it does not have to pay for gas than before can not and will not pay. As "Gazprom" has threatened to reduce supplies, it became clear that there you pay. This defeat in this situation or have any other details? "
Klaskouski: "As for the question was what to pay. Since funds have gone and probably will be paid the entire amount, it turns out that there are funds in the country. ‘Cause I think there was a settlement very delay the board. Here, I believe, was the moment Tricks such farm (we’re farming civilization) — tucked away just in case, so that less dues to pay to less flayed skins. Surprisingly, both sides have gained their own tactical purposes.
Moscow wanted money she got them. But was in such a way that in the sense of PR and won the Belarusian ruler because apparently paying debt turned into a dramatic spectacle here blazed Shakespearean passions. All it looked like this: "Here you are, take it, zadushytsesya if you are greedy oligarchs and for you it’s not enough." It was all the Belarusian ruler announced on August 2 during a meeting with reporters, "Russian Belarus." Bugaltarskaya procedure addavannya medication prescribed in various sad securities, has been transformed into a colorful PR actions. Its objectives: 1-x, unite around the leader of a civilization, as it protects the head of the East, the second — it’s very comfortable excuse later hang all the dogs on Moscow. And the abolition of benefits, and any subsequent nasty things such as increase in tariffs for housing and communal services — all this in hindsight can be attributed to Russia. "
Drakakhrust: "Valery Bulgakov, for which around such as Alexander said, bugaltarskay procedure (the time has come to pay — to pay) were drawn such passion?"
Bulgakov: "I would wish to identify short-and long-term goals of the parties. In this situation, the Kremlin was administered as first and second. Achieved the short-term or close to achieving — the next tranche of payment for Russian gas supplies to Belarus and knocked out is the highest possibility that he will be paid if not a week, then rapidly. But in the energy sector certainly Kremlin goal is not simply a constant disbursement for gas supplies to Belarus and the achievement of strategic control over energy system over the first "Beltransgaz".
The so-behaved nervously, used rhetoric with perahlestam, especially with respect to President Lukashenko, because in Minsk and Moscow has sur» severe doubts that the transfer of "Beltransgaz" under the strategic control of the Russian Federation really held in 2011. So based on the beliefs of a long trend remains intrigue, drama remains. Both sides, first Belarusian side do everything, to save for ways to escape and return to the status quo, which was the end of 2006. Lukashenko for the first time publicly admitted that this episode of gas supply lies broader Russian strategy to establish control over the Belarusian economy. Specifically, he stated this during his visit to the editors of "Russian Belarus."
This statement can be interpreted in such a Makarov that "Beltransgaz" is specific Brest fortress — when her pass, then it will start an irreversible for renting all strategically principle of» objects Belarusian economy. And in the long term, uncertainty remains. I think that our homelandnot preomnazhayut inability of Lukashenka’s regime to talk to international society. They assume that the Belarusian regime sentenced only to be turned to the East. "
Europe: the third, how happy or third, who is bored?
Drakakhrust. "Valery has already started talking about the third" unnecessary "in this conflict. Practically a day when" Gazprom "announced to reduce supplies from August 3, the EU has clearly stated about his own intrigued by the fact that the conflict was resolved possible faster. But it is possible that the EU acts backstage defended his position even more vigorously and yet least diplomatically. What, in your opinion, was Europe’s role in this conflict? Vadim, the word for you. "
Dubnov: "It seems to me that Europe’s role here should not exaggerate. Reaction was enough duty. Europe starts to get used to these dilemmas. They understand that this is not the last conflict of this kind between Russia and transit countries.
Europe just outlined its position on the fact that it provoked Lukashenko. For him, the main issue is not 460 million dollars, and even more severe rates. It’s not the cheapest kind of gas payment for the first six months of the year, and in the big scheme, which was painfully worked out first year. And Moscow was saying that the failure to pay for a six-month debt — a preparation for the destruction of the scheme in general.
Hence all this nervousness. And Lukashenko at the moment thinks not this June, and about the time when you have to give half of "Beltransgaz". And he has at this point you should be aware what will be the balance of forces at the decisive moment. Because he provoked Europe and Russia for the conflict to realize how these forces are now distributed.
It seems to me that for him, the answer was satisfactory. Because Europe, with all its own neutral terms, the main criticisms still addressed Moscow that indirectly admitted yesterday Russian Foreign Minister Minister Sergei Lavrov. And in this sense we can say that Lukashenko reached the own goal. "
Drakakhrust: "I should like to draw attention to another likely consequence of the conflict, to which, with diametrically different assessments, drew attention in the comments to our radio Russian and Polish experts. Europe once again faced with some conflict in the East, which bears the risk that Europe will not receive gas. And is it possible that Europe is becoming increasingly necessary to build a gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea to insure against this inconstancy? Valery, do you think? "
Bulgakov: "I am not without gratification wish to state that Europe is not some solid political player or sub» object. As for the" Nord Stream ", in this issue of the European elites hitherto retain great disagreement. About a month back the declaration appeared collective governments of the Baltic states and Poland with appeals to the German government to pave the "Nord Stream" is not under the Baltic Sea, and in areas of these states. EU indirectly determinavav this conflict between Belarus and Russia, but the indirect determination .
Our homeland beginning constructively to revise its energy policy after the fall of the Kuchma regime. Prior to 2004, Our homeland rather recklessly sponsored corrupt authoritarian regimes western part of the former Russian space hoping to keep makarom control over them. I think Lukashenko understands that the Kremlin has revised its position including under the influence of European support for Ukrainian democratic forces. I do not think he will forgive so European players, as Lithuania and Poland. And despite his protestations that the Belarusian milk will be delivered to the European markets, as there is not a lot of milk and prices on the huge geopolitical partners he believes Venezuela and China. Venesuela in this sense is very useful example, because the regime of Hugo Chavez spansarue Cuba about the same size, as did the Soviet Union in 1991. According to estimates of U.S. professionals Venesuela once a year subsidizing the Cuban economy from the sum billion to 2 billion dollars. I think that this particular experience Lukashenko had in mind when read as a reversal in the direction of this American country. "
Drakakhrust: "Alexander, do you think that this conflict can further strengthen the intention of an old Europe: Germany, France, through the construction of the Nord Stream to insure themselves against the conflicts that erupted almost every six months in Eastern Europe?"
Klaskouski: "I wish to note that now Europe’s response was indeed the duty. Was a feeling that to another gas war will not come, that all somehow end the truce. Forgive the comparison, but whenever the arrested members of the" Young Front " EU reacts similar statement, from which nothing changes. EU expressed concern and less. And with this Western reaction Belarusian side has received some piarnyh fruit. Belarusian TV painstakingly nastrygla quotes from the western press, particularly those where there are accusations towards the Kremlin.
But if you look in the future, then there is a very disturbing and unsafe things for Belarus. Indeed, such a policy leads to nekompitentnaya that aptly said one analyst, "skryvlyayutstsa natural geopolitical band." Speaking of these pipes to bypass, it is worth remembering not only through the North, and about midday flow through Dark Sea. With 2-sides new transit routes bypass Belarus and another 1st capricious tranzytsera — Ukraine. And at the moment this process katalizuetstsa as Our homeland is interested in, so as not to have trouble with such unpredictable tranzytserami and Europe understands this and goes to meet him. And despite the fact that Europe is quite multifaceted, under this "umbrella" energy security they try to find a consensus. "
Peace or truce?
Drakakhrust: "I now propose to return again in the context of the Belarusian-Russian relations and to predict how this conflict will affect bilateral relations? What is the effect on the campaign in Russia in which the Communist Party has chosen as the kind of brand campaign Chavez, Castro and Lukashenko? Vadim Dubnov, the first question for you. "
Dubnov: "I do not think it’s to be expected that any configuration of the vector, which was defined in 2000 in connection with the arrival of Putin. Has long given up on the federal state, on at least some probable integration. And because everything associated with Belarus has and will have only a tactical nature. Belarusian motives can use the Communists. But I do not think it will be much any tangible storyline campaign. Regarding strategic plans, it seems to me that Moscow only currently aware that she hopelessly belated attempts to influence on Belarus. In Russian interests in Belarus has two levels. 1st — energy program that this power project. Conditionally it could be intrigued to call "Beltransgaz." And there are intrigued by the Belarusian naftakomplekse in Belarusian industry which has no power, and controlled by the authorities of the business elite.
These elites and authorities acted in concert, and what was the strength and weakness. Power was to concentrate forces weakness is that blocking some efforts blocked efforts of others. I think that Lukashenka is pretty easy to suspend Russian ambitions. Our homeland will get nothing — no "Beltransgaz" nor Mozyr and Novopolotsk refinery. This plant, which Lukashenko masked in January this year, at the moment is quite trivial. Our homeland and begins to realize it. And also realize that this symbiosis — a long, and what is needed to build a business through such semi-permanent crises. Lukashenko uses very fine Russian. If the first few years he used Russia as an ally, but now in a PR plan to use it as an enemy. And again the same benefits. But, in fact, there is nothing new. Then everything came out half a year back, a year earlier. And at the moment we look at the development of these configurations and their institutionalization. "
Drakakhrust: "Recognizable German analyst Alexander Rahr in the comments for our radio expressed the view that even with how Putin’s successor Lukashenko will negotiate harder than Putin. Do you agree with that assessment?"
Dubnov: "For Lukashenko, this problem exists. But I think that the situation with Russia it will not get worse than that which we have now. His only problem will be that it will have little to rebuild the rhetoric, but, as in 2008 year, did not change fundamentally in Russian politics, just as fundamentally nothing has changed on the axis of our homeland — Belarus ".
Bulgakov: "If we are talking about the possible impact that the Communist Party is going to use images of Chavez, Castro and Lukashenko in the election campaign for the Duma elections, we recognized, however, that is not fully aware of the balance of power in today’s Russian political scene. CPRF There is rapidly converted to marginal group, which also destroyed by pro-Kremlin projects like "Fair Rosii." then I would agree with Vadim Dubnov in its strategic assessment of Russian election campaign. rate — not the parliamentary elections, the rate — the continuity of the highest power in the presidential elections in Russia.
Lukashenko main message is that no matter who will be the successor to Putin, Putin himself will be Putin’s successor, the Belarusian side will not change the strategic approaches in relation to maintain control over the Belarusian economy in general and the energy system viz. This message is issued with a populist rhetoric that can climb out sideways sovereign Lukashenko, because occasionally which control the former Soviet Union such uses visual tools, which uses the President. With regard to the submission of Alexander Rahr, though what that Putin’s successor will be worse for Putin Lukashenko, I would quickly agree with the sovereign Rahr, something with the sovereign Dubnov. After all, if the rotation happens in Russia person who occupies the presidency, Belarus will be in the ring or kvazidemakraty enemy democracies, at least in the range of countries where the Principal Manager really saved the country, and not as in Belarus — formally. It will not be necessary for Lukashenko political and psychic costs.
Klaskouski: "To paraphrase the title of the well-known films — Apocalypse not now. Other words in the relations between Moscow and Minsk will persist for the foreseeable term unbalanced dynamic balance. At some analysts, a version that, say, Putin is not the problem of Belarus wishes to transfer its successor today form. You understand what I mean.
But here the power to change is not as easy as it seems. Let majestic and mighty Our homeland, and some scripts and even the desire, certainly, there. But as do? Here do not shalt bring tanks Taman Division paratroopers not put Pskov division. Economy so quickly derail — also did not work. 4 years ahead painted formula price increases, besides the love read, Alexander Lukashenko, has a certain zhirok economy. You can take out loans, there is Hugo Chavez and other great people. Can, in the end, it gradually sell "family silver" — tasty morsels accessories. In short, a couple of years you can still stretch the operation of this model. On the other hand, in the current rhetoric, there is a definite plus. How assured is independent sociology, after the last winter of the war the oil and gas law to determine very true — drop integration and enhanced democratic sentiment. If you throw insults of old independence supporters, who for so many years it fough
t (and now they are pushed out of this niche, and all their rhetoric and the power conferred said no thanks), so if it’s fold, we can say that such growth trends-independent sentiment there is a positive thing. "
The gas crisis as a mirror of the evolution of the Belarusian
Drakakhrust: "Alexander, you have already begun to respond to the next question — about the impact of the crisis. You will be able to say more, as it will be, as it will affect the Belarusian public opinion and sentiment of the Belarusian nomenklatura? "
Klaskouski: "Nomenclature intimidated. And if vorachivatsya to talk about any scenario, the Kremlin, the hope for a coup nomenclature is also quite slim. Serie recent personnel" castling ", even landings, this is a very precise message — what happens if someone just rypnetsya. That all were sitting like a mouse under a broom. And nomenclature is well aware that is not the situation, that rock the boat. rypnulasya She would, if people went out, and the views of the nomenclature, it was necessary to be fool to defend this system . But this situation far away, in the 1-x, since there are certain provisions in the economy and in-2, due to the mentality of Belarusians — long they can sit on malehankih potatoes and not rock the boat.
Our long painful history has taught that any mess only lead to worse. Well, in the end — such factor as» impartial weakness of the opposition. It is in its own shell closes meets congresses, produces some strategy, and when it comes to certain, winning in terms of public relations moments … Look here — the abolition of benefits. Six months later they were assigned any shares in the fall, when everything is already forgotten about these benefits. Alexander Milinkevich tried to respond to a statement today the gas crisis, but at the moment, for example, on the Web there are many ironic comments, because there’s pretty awkward, slightly vtryruyuchy — the only salvation for Belarus — Lukashenko to negotiate with the opposition. In other words, the opposition has not kept pace with the march of events, can not quickly navigate and in this sense to impose that autumn street protests would be critical not necessary. Here it is necessary to focus on the long term. Grow democratic attitudes in society and vyspyavayuts the reasons that will force involuntarily authority to trample on the throat of his song in the sense that the conductor’s economic management. And the economy, if they go shifts and must reform will put everything on the shelves, because it inevitably leads to political change. "
Dubnov: "I think that fundamentally implications vnutribelorusskoy situation it also will not have. Lukashenko at the moment continues to pull the rug from under the feet of the democratic opposition. What it is? Apaniravats Lukashenko in his anti-Russian rhetoric? That would be amazing for the opposition. It is, incidentally, tries it mattersbe, but it comes quite clumsy, then she can only lose. Lukashenko agree with and support him in his sovereign sentiments? It is also foolish and fruitless. As for the forces which would be an organic line for continued integration with Russia, the same Communists, the opposition Communists on this alone will not go, and if they go, they will be very weak. There are no political forces that could apaniravats Lukashenko and work on his game, I do not see in Belarus.
With regard to nomenclature, it is true, Alexander said, it can be activated, if he sees a street momentum. But this momentum, I do not really believe. Minsk working to bring state of the output of the square — I think that Lukashenka will not allow certain resources it has, including the resources of the tougher political and economic stripes. And such a tough policy completely probable. I think that the nomenclature and the opposition, and by the way, our homeland and the West have long been resigned to the fact that you simply need to wait until the end era of Lukashenko. Its finale, I think no one would expect and encourage a more or less significant changes. "
Bulgakov: "While in Belarus, the river is no bloodshed and increases welfare, at least in this symbolic level, as this year, until the time for the harsh circumstances of internal destabilization will not. But global experience indicates that Lukashenko’s authoritarian system type, can not lead only to welfare, and to impoverishment. probable failure in doing that social contract between society and the regime, which is laid in the base stability of Lukashenka’s regime — just as I see some frustration on the part of top Belarusian managers. year, especially recently collision with Russia, I have not heard populist statements about the increase in salaries of Belarusians by 2010 to the level of 750 dollars, as was recently last year’s presidential elections. authoritarian regime, because of their own features, first because "nedamovazdolnastsi" may miss here and , since some time time, not work on a» volume. And like today’s conflicts can knock the bottom out of the social contract, and this trend we increase welfare. Today the Belarusian regime is really poor. Not counting technocratic increasing wealth and the standard nabivannya stomachs with food. It suppresses the opposite that activity which tries to give some idea of the state spiritual dimension. "