July 5, speaking to graduates of the Military Academy, the President noted that Belarus increasing pressure from all sides. It can be stated that the official Minsk to vorachivaetsya own classical anti-Western rhetoric? Worth the wait tightening in domestic policy? How can develop business with Russia?
Or completed a period of warming in relations between Belarus and the West?
Valery Karbalevich: "After the New Year of the Belarusian-Russian oil and gas crisis management Belarus seemed to start slowly turns to face the West.
Lukashenka’s statements were known European media in Minsk came influential Western politicians began unofficial dialogue with Brussels. Recent months could follow even some political thaw in the internal politics of the country, that the experts explained to the steps towards the EU and the U.S..
But after, as the EU deprived Belarus trade preferences to create memories that period of warming in relations between Minsk and the West ended. Lukashenko performances during the celebration of the Independence of days were marked by harsh anti-Western attacks.
July 5, speaking to graduates of the Military Academy, the President also noted that Belarus increasing pressure from all sides. In fact, Lukashenko vorachivaetsya to own the classic anti-Western rhetoric that has calmed down after the new year? Or it can be explained by some other factors? "
Andrei Fedorov: "Indeed, we are looking at the moment rollback reversed on a very feeble movements in the West, which took place Tipo first year. Manage Belarus hoped, after conflict with Russia, Belarus can get support from the West.
After this failed, the EU has deprived our country of trade preferences, and the official Minsk decided that the West is nothing to catch, you need to find happiness in the other side.
Necessary to direct attention to the fact that Lukashenko, speaking at a festive meeting dedicated to the days of Independence, gently moved the bad attitude of the West to the head of the country on the whole Belarusian people. This is not the first time.
By the way, we border with NATO member countries have almost 10 years. But you have increased our people a sense of threat in this regard? "
Karen Akopov: "Belarusian governance remains at the same positions in relations with the West. Samples do not have better things of success. Anti-Western rhetoric always increases during such prazdnichkom.
The main obstacle in relations between Belarus and the West, which is impossible to overcome — the problem of human rights. Development of relations can be exclusively economic issues. In principle, the West Lukashenko nothing more is needed. But the West is not satisfied with such things. "
Worth the wait tightening in domestic policy?
Karbalevich: "I think there is and increased repression within the country. Rebounding prosecution members "Young Front".
More unusual was the reopening of the case against four activists of the Union of Poles in Belarus. Criminal proceedings brought against them in 2005 during an acute conflict over this organization. In 2006 this year thing stopped. And now it is restored without any visible circumstances.
It is clear that Poland will be the reaction to such actions of the Belarusian authorities. Due to the fact that the specific terrain of Poland U.S. wants to arrange elements own missile defense, as Lukashenko sharply put, the case against the activists of the Union of Poles looks like an artificial provocation. For you do not think so? "
Fedorov: "Certainly, it’s the other side of the same coin. If the official Minsk sample did find a common language with the West, there was a definite thaw in domestic politics.
At this point, when things come to the West during the cold snap, and increasing pressure on political opponents inside. Since there is no sense of reality to pretend that we’ve got respect human rights.
As for reprisals against the Union of Poles in Belarus, it is not only revenge for accommodation in Poland 10 American missiles, and for the fact that October will begin with the Polish countryside broadcast satellite television on Belarus. This further increases the distrust between countries with 2 ".
Akopov: "Naturally, there is a link between the internal and external policies. As for accommodation in Poland and the Czech part of the U.S. missile defense system, it is a political issue.
Here, in my opinion, not very true to behave Our homeland. After all, this system makes the function of protecting those states that are not convinced of their safety, do not believe the neighbors. "
How can develop business with Russia?
Karbalevich: "The speeches Lukashenko during the days of celebration of Independence were seen positive gestures toward Russia. Though from Moscow signals are negotiable.
Kremlin furnishes Belarus a loan requirements even political content. Putin has not yet willing to negotiate with Lukashenko. Against this background, the meaning of such statements Russophile Belarusian ruler? "
Fedorov: "This policy is completely understandable. If not go to the West, then you need to go to the East. But from the RF signals are different. On the one hand, as you said, with credit pulls Moscow, Putin does not want to meet with Lukashenko.
But on the other hand, specifically with the filing of our homeland was expelled from Belarus blacklist in the UN Council on Human Rights was abolished post of special rapporteur on Belarus. Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov, speaking to students in Minsk, Belarusian State University, said that Moscow will always lobby for the interests of Belarus, that she became a member of the Council of Europe.
In such dvaistastsi Russian politics and is a danger to Belarus. Our homeland presses economically and proves that if you are willing to unite, then we can go forward. Despite all the conflicts, Moscow does not declare in public that we abandon the idea of integration and darted to the case of 2-uh-independent states. "
Akopov: "It is necessary to separate the respect of Heads of State and against the state, society, business entities.
And support for Russia Belarus in international organizations does not add credibility Russian foreign policy. Our homeland has to move to the West. And she Belarus in this movement interferes.
But on the other hand, Belarus is an additional card in the game of the Russian Federation with majestic powers.
For example, during the negotiations in the "Big Eight", when it will go about what to do with "crisis countries" (Cuba, Belarus, Zymbabve, Burma), Belarus, Moscow may change for concessions from the West. Belarus’s reliance on Russian diplomacy can have irreversible consequences for our country . "
Karbalevich "Makar So, we can say clearly disappointed Lukashenko Western policy towards Belarus. But what consequences it may bring, yet hard to say. Should be more time to see the new political trends."