Belarusian authorities or clan?
Drakakhrust: "Resignations of the KGB and sonorous clarify these resignations head of the country are forced once again to ask the question to what extent the authorities in Belarus is the clan, indeed whether nomenclature groups turned into closed clans with their goals and interests, the interests of distant countries like Belarus, so even her manager? Beating SCC chairman Lomat KGB confirmed Lukashenko at a meeting on Thursday — is not this illustration that only let someone’s eyes and bad, of state power, but there is, so to speak, separate brigades municipal and ensuring a monopoly on violence? Either this fact — a coincidence, but all discussions about klanavasts — fudge terse sensationalist journalists? Andrei Dynko, here you are just a journalist, what is your answer? "
Dynko: "If this happens with the head of the Committee of municipal control, read about what ordinary Belarusians? There was some very dirty provocation. And it’s not that exclusion — such provocations, and from time to time and even dirtier, made once a day once a week, every month-independent activists against society, against dissidents. These workers did what they were trained, what their sought. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrew, based on the belief state is different things. Thrashes If the police demonstrators resistance state is not disturbed. But when police thrashes the police when people who represent municipal monopoly on legitimate violence used against representatives of the very same country — is a different quality of the country? "
Dynko: "I would not agree. When representatives of special services tossed drugs minority leaders of the state organization, as was the case with the Union of Poles, it is specifically and undermine the government. Since it divides its people.
Here we have seen that, in this system that converts regardless of the will of its Governors. This fight for business, the struggle for control of the property our country. Over the property, which in this system not controlled society, as she and uncontrolled government. It is controlled by individuals or private security forces. Because this fight clans and she has really inherent in this system. Differently and can not be, because the whole property in the country is controlled by these clans. "
Drakakhrust: "Kirill Koktysh, how would you characterize the degree klanavastsi Belarusian authorities? Klanavasts That is more typical for the Central Asian states, is the appropriate property for the so called" failed states, "many of which, for example, in Africa. Whether Belarusian government specifically such, when, figuratively speaking, clans ate the government? "
Koktyish: "I agree that this was the kind of new step split clans. Currently whole government temporarily converted into totality clans that compete among themselves. But it seems to me that this is not the process that develops itself.
This klanavasts seems inspired from above, because the unparalleled performance Lukashenko at a meeting of the KGB, when he introduced a new chairman, the ardor of his speech may indicate only one thing — that’s just the beginning, and that in the coming days are we will witness other sonorous resignations. Maybe it will dismiss the government, may go some ministers to resign. Belarusian president — a good PR, but only talk for such a scandal — is preparing for a large-scale cleanup will change if enough significant part of the existing Belarusian elites.
So split into clans there, but this provoked a split top and engineered in order to get rid of some clans completely. So I think that this will last for long klanavasts. "
Drakakhrust: "Vital Silitski, and what is your answer? By the way, if you read about a situation where people in uniform are fighting with people in uniform, we remember how during nedavneshnego Ukrainian crisis came exactly a clash between commandos 2-power structures" .
Silitski "Oh klanavasts Ukrainian authorities in connection with these contractions do not have to read. It was institutional conflict, there is not a simple system in which various law enforcement agencies to submit to various branches of government. We all power Tipo together, but what happens — it is laid in the nature of the system, here I agree with the sovereign Koktysh.
What is a clan? In my memory pops Don Corleone of "The Godfather" mafia family honor» and above all. Clan — is more profound relationship than usual grupavanne interests. Clan ties are formed even years — for centuries. And we obviously do not have this, we have a group of interest, for this power essentially, that they appeared, that they have always competed and that they never zatsverdyavali. Because such rotation and "peratrahvanni" as our president read, they just in the genes of this system personolistskoy power. And what happened at the moment, has a reason that the head of the country seemed to whether he filed that some of these groups are the same, and then they can get out of control. "
Why Lukashenko issued dirty linen in public?
Drakakhrust: "Well, now I propose to appeal to Lukashenka’s speech in the presentation of the new KGB chief Yuri Zhadobin Committee. Why Adamkus publicly confirmed virtually all the rumors about the KGB, who waved the last few months and in particular — the last days after the resignations and Sukharenko Dzemyantsey Why is not was manufactured quiet, why ventured obvious reputational damage? And what was the head of the country to the public to throw in the face of all controls KGB charge nesumlennastsi? Cyril, what do you think? "
Koktyish: "It seems to me that this is only part of the plan, and, as I have read, it is only the beginning. This is an ancient problem that if Belarusians face the necessity of market reforms, it turns out that with existing elites do not do a lot of things, because the elite partially used to reallocate resources, but do not make it. Lukashenko Because this scandal did quite comfortable conditions for large-scale "peratrahvannya" all driving elites when the older layer of these elites will simply be thrown out of the system, and the rate will be made on the young. Maybe young people and why learn.
So makarom Lukashenko on time to solve the problem of low upward mobility and the problem of young appease those who do not behold the place itself and prospects. This tactical move, strategically he clearly does not help, because the change of lay experts on any system ever fails. There will be a substitution of experts whose expertise in the newest reality simply is not necessary for non-professionals, but young.
In the history of this happened more than once. Here there are signs that China has received the title of "cultural revolution" that Iran turned into Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Old elite will be thrown out of undereducated youth will be made by the new elite who will know that everything i
n this life, they have the current government. At the time of retirement should go to the entire system. "
Drakakhrust: "Vitali, Cyril painted an alarming picture of the" Cultural Revolution ", the arrival of the Red Guards. Do you agree with this prediction?"
Silitski: "Partially, yes, there hungweipings — very Cancel analogy. Yesterday I was watching telly and heard Lukashenko read, introducing new candidate head of the KGB, that, say, I will not prevaricate and read that he stately expert, but this man bring order here. Clear why it was all done: bring order — in other words to reassign all the president.
Segodnyaschy rhetoric Lukashenko 100% identical to what he read in 1994 — 95% of grassroots committee employees are great, but it» s the top of page — bad.
When Lukashenko came to power, he was obliged to rely on an old nomenclature, on the "old farts", and now it is time to do the final reboot the system with the same principles, but with new footage. A main principle here is one — do not let the system areas of institutional autonomy. That’s why for this system so important retirement and rotation "peratrahvanni." And about the fact that Lukashenko raised his hand for the KGB — so he planted and Prime Ministers» er.
It is normal for him, because the principle of "bad boyars and a good ruler" — one of the most important in its ideology. Well, finish his ruler, but in the end saw all came and dispersed.
But this circus can not last forever. You can impale some always, You can impale all some time, but not everyone always goes to impale. But until such a resource for public relations-way power has not been exhausted. "
Drakakhrust: "By the way, the age structure of the Belarusian elite peremptory, I beheld here and there is evidence that the average Belarusian bureaucrat 10 years older than Russian, and for all that our homeland — not in the sense of restoring favorite frames. But whether it really Meeting in the KGB — prolih Belarusian "Cultural Revolution" and the advent of the new Red Guards? Andrew, do you think? "
Dynko: "Belarusian bureaucrat on average 10 years older than the Russian, Belarusian ministers on average 20 years older than their own Baltic and Scandinavian colleagues.
It would be interesting prainterpretavats it all as an attempt to give the system a new breath to rely on youth, bring "fire at the headquarters," to make Belarus "cultural revolution." But I do not see any socio-economic prerequisites for this, I do not see why you need to Lukashenko do it specifically at the moment. I take a closer interpretation of Vitali.
In yesterday’s speech Lukashenko in the KGB, which was broadcast on all TV and radio channels, a phrase, it seems to me the chief. He said: "The other centers of power I will not tolerate."
It’s true, apparently, explains resignation Sukharenka and Dzemyantsey — 2-people is independent society heartily not adored, with this dislike was mutual, the feral attack on top bureaucrat — Zenon Lomat. After rumors about the resignation Sukharenko walking has long, it predicted a few months, and beating Zenon Lomat, certainly, was the only decent reason. If Lomat not beaten could would come up with something, to organize.
I think the main reason is that the KGB remained state within a state. It was one of the last structures that have been in this system a relatively-independent, independent, hidden and opaque, are not fully guided prezydenturay. And it could not in the long term does not pose a threat to Lukashenko. Pay attention that Sukharenko — not the first head of the KGB, which kicked out, to put it mildly, with discontent. Before it was Erin, who was expelled unclear what, using as an excuse the fact that he took and held Sevyarinets "separate negotiations" with the opposition for 20 minutes. Before that Mackiewicz overthrown and exiled to diplomatically link. This is a tradition that this structure is not fully trusted.
If we talk, how it affects the Belarusian statehood, I would have corrected Vitali, noting that the rotation is needed not only for such a system, it is good for at least some of the democratic system. In a democratic system change all levels of management and senior management must change.
It’s no secret that at the highest and the lowest level in the KGB has a lot of unhappy Lukashenko. People know this from personal contacts. But another question, but who they are satisfied? Often develops recollection that these people Lukashenko not happy, but they are not only pro-Russian, Russian, they on their own liking, they are more Russian Lukashenko. "