Six months after the oil and gas war
Drakakhrust: "This week marked the 15th anniversary of the establishment diplomatic relations between Belarus and Russia. Given the density of relations almost to merge with 2 between the countries, which were observed during the one and half desyatsigoddyav date Tipo and unimportant. But — an occasion to talk about the present and future state of the bilateral relations in the light of some, but long enough to be independent of the new history of relations between Belarus and Russia.
You can see a certain irony in the time that coincided with the anniversary of threatening overseas — particularly this week, six-month period ended, Belarus was allowed to pay half price for gas from that which has been defined in the last day of the year. Since July 1, the price — $ 100 for a thousand cubic meters plus half a billion dollars of debt that had accumulated over six months.
So now, the topic of oil and gas vorachivayas war have now become more apparent consequences of this war, we can say that the price spike padrubiv pillars as the Belarusian economy, so maybe the Belarusian statehood? Kalinkina, word for you. "
Kalinkina: "I think the new economic affairs in the oil and gas industry could predict when we exist as two independent states. And you can not say that the rise in gas prices on energoelementy padrubila Belarusian economy, it may eventually force the management to Belarus in a civilized way, the path of economic reform. Indeed, our economy, as well as the economy of any country, can not sustain itself sets unprofitable companies obsolete. And it seems to me, our homeland, which is very long Lukashenko gave preferential energoelementy, made very dumb thing to Belarus. But, on the other hand, it is clear why this was done — that was a great dependence of Belarus on Russia, and the financial and political, because it is clear, economics determines politics. "
Drakakhrust: "Vitaly Portnikov, how would you assess the implications for the Belarusian economy and statehood of Russia coming this price?"
Portnikov: "I think that the current situation with the Belarusian statehood is not threatening, it was not threatening the entire period of the reign of Alexander Lukashenko. Than once I have read exactly what Alexander Lukashenko is a guarantor of the Belarusian statehood because of its statehood and power — synonyms.
Another thing that President Lukashenko Russia always used to expand their own abilities. But there does not have to wonder, though any person with authoritarian tendencies always uses all the levers in order to continue without any particular reform its management to turn the government into a corporation. This happens in Russia and Ukraine, except that in the least authoritarian style.
But at the moment for Lukashenko create another situation in the Belarusian economy. As it will be adequate to this situation, hard to say. Now the Belarusian economy is still faced with the neuvvyazkami that one way or another will arise after the increase in energy prices. It is not clear how companies will have to restructure their work, which will have to suspend it. Now it is unclear how vulnerable people will react to the collapse of social guarantees that existed in Belarus all these years, who did her Russian peninsula in the sea pavrynkavay economy adjoining states.
We’ll see, but I would not advance to bury the government of Belarus, as well as would not advance bury Lukashenko as the head of this country. "
Drakakhrust: "Viktor Martinovich, and you have started to bury someone in this context?"
Martinovic, "No, do not need to bury anyone. Economics has been kept. And by the way, in recent months, often we hear quite optimistic estimates. Incidentally, these estimates lead people who immediately after the crisis, in February-March, silent and watched. Consequences come very slowly, and they are quite irrelevant: inflation — 1-2%. Already these professionals begin to remember that about Lukashenko always says that he is about will crash, but he always invent a way out.
I would not agree with those who give the apocalyptic predictions and portends collapse. But I do not share the outlook and those optimists who believe that the consequences will be no general. Because at the moment, compared to previous years, in discussions about the decline really have a reason. In my opinion, an indication that the government still thinks what is happening in the country, which decreases cash in store, that "the Belarusian magic" starts to wobble — evidence of awareness of this is that at the parade on July 3 and will not branetehniki aircraft.
While still May 9 stated that we do not parade on Victory day, but certainly create a parade on July 3. And the fact that the government still decided to parade relatively shy — is aware that the time for festive orgy bad. But neither the economy nor the policy implications of a large bukovkoy have not yet occurred. "
Shield in the South American anti-missile shield
Drakakhrust: "Victor has already started talking about the" war toys ", I want it to continue. On the anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in Minsk came minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov. Minsk he once again criticized the South American plans to deploy in Europe, parts of the U.S. missile defense system while this criticism has been enthusiastically taken up by his Belarusian interlocutors.
At the moment, walks a lot of rumors and discussions that Belarus could participate in the Russian South American response to these plans. A few months back the clock on this opportunity abstractly hinted Lukashenka himself. But how realistic such projects, and most importantly — as a practical solidarity between Russia and Belarus in this and other military matters could suspend or reverse translation that bilateral relations to a market economy, which began at the end of the past — the beginning this year? Vitaly Portnikov that your answer to this question? "
Portnikov: "It seems to me that the question as Belarus and Our motherland can cooperate in mythological response to the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system parts — it will not be decided in Minsk and Moscow, and during a meeting in Kenebenkportse President Vladimir Putin and his South American employee of George W. Bush at the ranch father of South American president. We are well aware that here in Russia are not as strong as it may seem, listening to Russian television broadcasters and the president of the Russian Federation. Not so in Russia is not enough funds to be cut into a missile defense system .
I think that Putin’s proposal on joint lease radar in Azerbaijan indicates that Moscow finds the output is not in the arms race, and in the preservation of face to the electorate, which all these years khalyavnykh oil prices have tried to prove that the Russian economy is successfully developing.
Is another question entirely, and Belarus there can be a weapon in the controversy with the United States. But in Washington are well aware what the real cost of Vladimir Putin’s statement that the real potential of his country — Upper Volta with rockets, which at one point already having a huge area substantially collapsed before our eyes, if its leaders kerf in the arms race with the civilized world.
We are well aware that our homeland, if involved in this arms race, go to the USSR. So that Lukashenko will naturally use this theme, but that no such date as 15-godde diplomatic relations celebrated in Minsk in the presence of only the minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation, indicates the level of relations. Previously, there came the Prime Minister or some other high-ranking bureaucrat.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in Russia and Belarus are not for real foreign policy, which is absent in these countries, and to promote the achievements nedyplyamatav on television.
But if used for advocacy actions not face the first row, then this event has no particular significance, at least in the eyes of the Russian political elite. "
Drakakhrust: "Victor, what do you think happens if the official Minsk transfer problems in the political and military-political sphere tendency to interrupt transfer of economic relations to a market economy?"
Martinovic: "You put the question very true. The Belarusian authorities is the realization that a year or two in the economy mode in which we are working at the moment, we simply will not sustain. And, as I understand, the rate at the moment is made specifically on military cooperation. At this rate is to get out of the economic crisis in relations between Belarus and Russia.
Certain group in the presidential administration, trusting some analysts concluded that the Russian President will be followed by Sergei Ivanov. With this conviction has already made certain conclusions about Belarusian political situation, namely with respect to staffing configurations in the Ministry of Defence. There is a plan under which we are very intensifies deal with Russia in the military sphere, that Sergei Ivanov, when he in 2008 to become president of the Russian Federation, mentioned tight military cooperation, which went to Belarus, and lowered prices for us energoelementy. I’ve heard of such a strategy.
How it works — it’s a question. I personally think this strategy is quite unusual. That situation on oil and gas, we currently have is a result of the fact that certain circles in the Kremlin decided that Belarus is not ready for integration. And there — a typical way of thinking: you’re either with us or against us. And if you’re against us, we will crush you. And at the moment there is pressure dushenne Belarus in all directions. But of course, that if a country, which is compressed, offers in the midst of this pressing together any third compressed, it will not work. "
Drakakhrust: "Kalinkina, how would you answer this question? And like you rate the information on the rate of the Belarusian Victor control military cooperation and Sergei Ivanov?"
Kalinkina: "I believe that the Belarusian management currently is seeking new geapalitychnaga status and meaning. Belarus, as we know, there are two fundamental values: it is a transit country and this country — a buffer between NATO and Russia. Essentially Belarus has always been military cooperation with Russia, because without the help of other country could not equip his army, she did not have the defense industry, as, incidentally, has not and at the moment. And the market for our defense industry — is a cooperative market with Russia.
Because it seems to me, is nothing revolutionary at the moment does not occur, and on the contrary, this year’s first Belarusian management started talking about the price of military bases. I believe that this was a big mistake, because so far in Moscow were that more than others in the military sphere than Belarus in Russia is not. But it turned out that one very well be considered the means and at any moment can expose their claims.
I agree that in regard to defense, the rhetoric of the Belarusian-Russian projects — it’s less than a propaganda move and not in Minsk will be addressed this question, although the Belarusian authorities would very much like this.
As for the economy, then there is military cooperation can assist the Belarusian budget, a number of Belarusian companies, but those cases that are currently lining up between Belarus and Russia, it can not change. After all, things are built, as inter with 2 independent states. Another thing is that this economic pressure may have different consequences. Currently there are proposals odious Russian politicians about the association in a unity government.
Belarusian management currently varies. For Lukashenko very fundamental political perspective, I think it disturbs him even more than the economic outlook. Find a way out of the economic situation we litsezreem: it fundraising, search credits, in the latter case will be selling companies. But the political outlook is not so trivial. And I do not exclude that such search is conducted specifically political prospects in Russia. "
What will be the mission of Russia’s third president?
Drakakhrust: "Victor has started a conversation on that, namely, in Russia are interested in all politicians and analysts — who will become the owner of the Kremlin in 2008. Hardly we should participate in this puzzle razgadvanni level personalities, much more fruitful to try to answer question: what is the mission of Russia’s third president, or another: where will our homeland in 2008? This is slightly different question than solitaire persons — on views of many analysts that Putin has done since 2000, one way or another would have done and other policies appear they in his place — though Luzhkov, although Primakov, although Stepashin, although anyone else. So at the moment — a trend that may be more important than the individual. And what is it — a mission — a trend? Where will our homeland and how it will affect her relationship with Belarus Vitaly, what do you think? "
Portnikov: "I think that is not quite true state that at least some policies that would helpful for Russian president, would do the same. In 1999, we watched wrestling clan, one of which is personified by the measure of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov and former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, tried to seize the controls in the "family" of the KGB, headed by Boris Yeltsin. But the company was able to establish some anonymity of power in Russia. Indeed principal, who is president of of the company, the main thing that he was the guarantor of the inviolability of corporate interests.
You, Yuri, right, Luzhkov or Primakov could be as guarantors of corporate interests, the only other company.
Certainly, at this point it does not matter who — Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov or Vladimir Yakunin — will succeed. After all, they all — nobody like Vladimir Putin — is none. But for the moment the question is avoided: either we continue to play in the collective Yeltsin, of which all these years was Vladimir Putin, Putin himself, especially after the death of Boris Yeltsin, Putin becomes collective. What will be more important in determining the clan — "family" or security officers? At the same time security officers in the sense of closeness to Putin, and not in the sense of proximity to the Lubyanka.
And this is obviously a definite change of policy. It was then that really is fundamentally aware of what will be the mission of this president. If collective Yeltsin continues, then we must admit that Alexander Lukashenko has been successfully entered into the corporate system based on specific beliefs rassredotachivaniya income. Belarus — this is a fundamental part of family earnings, and built a system Lukashenko, comfort to those who are kept under the control of cash flow and determine human destiny in the Russian leadership.
If instead of the collective will of the collective Yeltsin, Putin, then at 1-x, it is unclear how this collective Putin will rule Russia, because of the political opportunities Vladimir much less than Boris Nikolayevich and his associates. And in-2, Alexander Lukashenko will be able to fit into the latest corporate rassredotachivaniya system resources? Or brand new elite who will win this fight, sees fit to find a new caretaker for their funds, which will go through Belarus? That’s it. In fact, nothing personal, just business. "
Drakakhrust: "Svetlana, and what is your answer to these questions? What or Putin’s policy is similar to the policy of Yeltsin against Belarus, but in spite of Belarus, among them you can see a lot of material, fundamentally differences. From time to time about the third president of the world can be heard it would be a doll, appointed Putin. But Putin himself appointed. But the peculiarity of policy in our region is that the dolls thread terminated. "
Kalinkina: "I, frankly, fundamentally differences between Putin and Yeltsin against Belarus can not see. Simply, these leaders did the different stages of the expansion of the Russian Federation to Belarus. First step was tentative, there was more politics. Currently stepped economic expansion step . third mission president will probably make this expansion.
Generally in the world at the moment direct seizure of the territory is not very practical, the main instrument of control — that economic control. And in Belarus, I do not see a strong player Our homeland than. It is during the entire period of the prior — and under Yeltsin and Putin — the role configured. And Russia’s third president mission — to bring this process to a step closure.
As Lukashenko will resist or succumb to this — and this depends on his political future. "
Martinovic: "I think the main difference will be that kanfrantatsyynasts that is in our relationship at the moment will be lost. Mission of the new president of the Russian Federation will not anticipate those exacerbations that occur at this point in the relations between Russia and Belarus and Russia and Ukraine.
In my opinion, despite some historical missions that are predefined order or another character in politics, in our area of the former USSR are tied to the personalities, strongly depends on personalities much. Despite the fact that read Vitaly, I am sure that the present state of relations between Belarus and Russia could only be under President Putin. No other man for president of Russia, even Yevgeny Primakov would not spend policies pursued at the moment.
As for the mission, Yeltsin and Putin really be regarded as some preparation. If we talk about the general psychology of Russian power, all its members are convinced that Belarus — this is their territory. It’s in their genes just sits. With the loss of Ukraine, they did not accept this time so that they may lose Belarus, they never get used. Here is their genetic doom against Belarus will influence the behavior of people who, together with Putin’s successor will come to power in 2008.
I do not know, friendly or tough methods will be used in order to return Belarus under Russian influence. Indeed, the expansion that can last Russian capital, which in the last year, by the way, very very advanced. Mission is Russia’s third president as possible rapid integration of Belarus and Russia. After all, it was a mission and the first and second presidents of. They are just different ways to do it. Putin more nervous and brutal president, and he, in spite of what Belarus is responsible for his steps, allows for yourself to increase the price of gas and oil. But the mission remains the same — to take control of our territory. "
Or play "Russian card" of the opposition?
Drakakhrust: "One gets the impression that all the fundamental integration projects that have the potential within themselves the danger of the independence of Belarus, on deflotu shelved longish box, if not forever. On the transition of Belarus to the Russian ruble or the Constitutional Act on the official representatives of Minsk and Moscow, and if recall , in order purely ritual gestures.
At the same time Belarus opposition circles there’s a certain eagerness to play "Russian card". You can recall the April 2 meeting which convened Skrabets Sergey and Valery Frolov and manifest Parfenovich and Leonid Sinitsyn, and the recent joint declaration UCP and ATP, in the end, on some views, he split that occurred in the last Congress of Democratic Forces , so to speak, in podbivtsy had different eyes on the case specifically with Russia.
I’m not saying that these initiatives are similar — Parfenovich-Sinicyn offered obvious occurrence in Russia, UCP and other coalition parties and ideas do not have such plans. Yet what is the purpose or one — to use Russian for changes in Belarus. As can be fruitful such plans and calculations? Viktor Martinovich that your answer to this question? "
Martinovic, "I believe that these contacts are very useful. In my opinion, if the Belarusian opposition will have grant support from Moscow, her work will be more fruitful than if it is to receive funds from the West. Why? Because no matter what kind of work, in including the work of the Belarusian opposition is effective only in this case, if the one who perceives it, it can properly assess. Russian Potential donors, including Belarusians who live and work in Russia, even more correct than the West evaluate what is happening in Belarus.
Because, in my opinion, the Belarusian opposition contacts with Russia — it is very fruitful and necessary, and accusations of "selling the motherland," which will throw those on such contacts are not stand up to scrutiny. It is the policy. You can take the money from the Russians, swear them in unending love, but purport coming to power. "
Drakakhrust: "Victor, you yourself, answering the previous question, states that all Russian political elite, without exception, is oriented towards practically incorporation of Belarus into Russia. And you think that when dealing with part of the Belarusian opposition, these Russian" donors "as you call them about this and forget your zaryentavanasts will deal only with political charity? "
Martinovic: "I have not heard of a single case, that donors in the Kremlin who just think Belarus part of, would provide a means of Belarusian opposition. Such cases were not. I’m afraid that under the rule of Lukashenko such cases and will not be.
When I talk about donors, at first I mean those Belarusians who, I know, and provide funds for specific projects in Belarus. Belarusian diaspora in Moscow has funded some Belarusian politicians who showed themselves here very worthy and very much. If the Belarusian diaspora in Russia provides a means of Belarusian opposition — which is great. If the Kremlin provides a means of Belarusian opposition — this is probably not very good and not very good for the future of Belarus, but to change the regime is quite excellent.
Indeed, there is the question of how people will behave, which may come to power in the Russian agent. But again, this is politics, you can trade if there than to trade. Once you become the president of Belarus, you can read his Russian donor anything. It is clear that the president, who came to power on the Russian agents will be more favorably refers to Russian investors, giving them a longer warranty, but he — the president of the country to be independent. I do not think it will take her or incorporated into the adjacent country just as he was brought to power some Kremlin circles. "
Drakakhrust: "Svetlana, well, for you the same question — like you rate the fruitfulness of these promising initiatives?"
Kalinkina: "I believe in the external policies of the opposition forces, as well as the official policy of the outside — the same disease. This adnavektarnasts. And in this sense, I very much welcome the fact that at the moment the representatives of our democratic forces in Russia are trying to find allies, who sees Belarus is not composed of, as an independent democratic state. If we talk of incorporation, then no one in Russia — neither the Kremlin nor for the Kremlin, there is no chance to find allies in the midst of Belarusian democrats in Belarus’ accession into the Russia. People who favor it are surrounded by Alexander Lukashenko.
Those cases, those links that are currently trying to establish our democracy — is a fundamentally different attitude to the Belarusian-Russian relations, and in Russia quite analysts and politicians who understand that it is all the same no one government and one people. And the problem of the union, which is now opened to a standstill and the output from which, at first glance, there is no need to be addressed and solved in a civilized manner. And to do this you need to meet and open a discussion this issue not only with the team Lukashenko.
In this sense, I would certainly welcome a sample of Belarusian democrats prove that Democrats Belarus — is not nationalists, they will not plant Russians Belarus on bags and chase in Russia, what they have always blamed the Belarusian official propagandists. Another thing that has not yet seen the enthusiasm of the official structures of the Russian Federation to our democratic movement. Maybe it’s a matter of time, maybe they still do not believe in that Belarusian democrats — is not the nationalists.
Will it have some of our politicians to impose severe ties with Moscow — this is a very big question. After all, there are different initiatives and is very many of those who simply want to get the funds. And in Russia well aware of what Victor Martinovich read that give money — this one, and that they will be later — is quite another. Because I think that those who simply gives "grant applications" in Russia than, in my opinion, was manifest Sinitsyna Parfenovich and make very bad thing for our country. After meeting with several of these policies that they say about the brotherhood with Russia in search of funds, to cooperate in the harsh people can generally abyss. But the fact that we are moving away from adnavektarnastsi from rates only in the West — which is great. Especially since that is already in the West understand that more leverage to influence the situation in Belarus has specifically Our homeland ".