What are the prerequisites of a new crisis in the economic relations between Belarus and the Russian Federation?

The decision of "Gazprom" to reduce supplies of gas Belarus indicates worsening of relations between countries with 2. Than to explain such a concrete step Russian company? What is the strategy of the Belarusian side in this conflict? What is the position of Russia in matters of payment of gas and granting the loan?
Why "Gazprom" decided to cut gas supplies to Belarus?
Valery Karbalevich "fruitless talks governmental delegations of Belarus and the Russian Federation in Moscow not only caused a resounding response in Belarusian and Russian media, and had a bad practical consequences. The decision of "Gazprom" to reduce supplies of gas Belarus shows another relationship crisis 2-states. How can to comment on such a step? "
Vital Silitski: "The conclusion is simple: you must pay the bills. A Belarus pays only 55 bucks for a thousand cubic meters 1. Instead of $ 100. And This time breach of contract punished. Under the rules of mathematics, "Gazprom" has decided to deliver only 55% of the contract volume. Such pressure is made to force Belarus to pay or fill tools, or to pay something else. "
Karbalevich: "In the Belarusian-Russian relations, signed agreements, contracts are conditional nature. They just violated by both sides. Delays in payments for gas Belarus in the 90s of the last century were commonplace. Because at the moment and pinned his hopes on the Minsk indulgent attitude of the Russian Federation. "
Silitski: "Minsk did not realize the signals that were sent from Russia in recent years."
Alexander Chubrik "Fact, that partial payment for gas Belarusian side tried to use to get from the Russian soft loan. Minsk says, we have no means to pay. And therefore borrow funds. Moscow disagreed and reduced gas supplies.
Our homeland offers to pay the debt for gas at the moment, and the loan promises had spent later in the fall. But then it will be a loan to the other, the worst criteria: or stabilization loan, or anything else. "
Manifested strategy Belarusian side in this conflict?
Karbalevich "perceptible that negotiations are taking place behind closed doors: both sides conceal information — do not they say, the essence of the differences.
Namely, the Belarusian management generally hides information from the public that it pays for gas only half the price, that asks RF great credit — 1.5 billion dollars. Is there a clear strategy for these acts of official Minsk? If there are no funds to pay for gas then where will the money for the return of the loan? Is that the management of the country about the next day do not reflect, and proceed from logic: just to survive now? "
Silitski: "On the contrary, just Belarus management thinks about the next day. It wishes to make in store. After all, for the payment of debts for gas in Belarus means there. There is a budget surplus. Huge loans received by business entities and banks. But next year, gas prices will rise substantially. Government about this just reflects. Why is this game with Russia. "
Chubrik: "Indeed, the government wants to play it safe by Russian loan. To have something to pay at the end of this, early next year. Because in fact there are funds in the budget to pay for gas in full. For example," Gazprom "shares listed in "Beltransgaz" 625 million dollars. These funds will be enough to pay off the debt.
Because in the medium term it is quite a common strategy. If the Belarusian management justify potential investors that it can keep the economic, financial situation under control, to keep the stability of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, then you can count on verbovanie investment. "
What is the position of Russia in matters of payment of gas and granting the loan?
Karbalevich: "Russia’s position as the public is not made public. There were some vague statements Russian officials to say: Belarus should surely apply for a loan, to change his economical policy. But they quickly fogged than prayasnyayuts Moscow’s position.
But in the Russian media are fed a variety of versions. Some they say that a condition for granting the loan is more profitable sale of Belarusian companies Russian companies. For example, Suzdaltsev claims as if Moscow fears that Belarus may abandon generally give credit as refuses to pay for gas. Appeared generally exotic version that delaying the expenditure loan Our homeland is trying to reject such makarom Sidorsky from office premiere — with the hope of changing his person, more priklnnym to Russia. What is in fact the position of Russia in these negotiations? "
Silitski: "Minsk begins to violate certain rules of the game or, if you wish," concepts ". Seems Our homeland already sounds Lukashenko to make these rules," broke down the "oil and gas with its compromise agreement at the turn of the past and current years.
Moscow is ready to charge for gas and means, and shares of the companies. Then, quickly, the question of political choice by the Belarusian authorities. While they are not willing to pay neither the means nor the shares.
Now about Sidorsky. Week and a half back, in the midst of a campaign against the KGB, there is information about the imminent resignation of Prime Minister of Belarus and the purpose of this post Naumova (with Russian media feed). Of course, that kind of game with Moscow against Sidorsky underway. But it’s hard to say at what level. "
Chubrik "version of Sidorsky quite funny. Indeed it is unclear how Moscow can act to ensure that Lukashenko declared as premier pro bureaucrat.
Next: agreement to sell Russian Belarusian companies simply break. But do not pay the credit debt is hard enough. After all, if the government does not pay the loan, her credit score coming down. A Belarus presently it is very fundamental question: because it tends to get foreign loans. Because the cost of non-payment of Russian loan will be substantially more than 1.5 billion dollars.
In Russia, the procedure developed spending credit. For this configuration should be entered in the budget law. And this will be made exclusively in October. Moscow’s position is ordinary general Render us debt, and we talk about loans fall. "
Silitski: "To pay the credit debt, you will need perapazychyts funds. Because there basically have a regular international credit rating. Indeed, the West can take loans much cheaper. It also imposes certain restrictions on Belarus act towards Russia."
Karbalevich: But does not affect the credit rating, the country’s international financial reputation failure to pay debts for gas? In this sense, what’s the difference — not repay the loan or not to pay for gas? "
Chubrik: "Formally, for gas does not pay" Beltransgaz ", not the government. And for the loan must be calculated specifically government. On the other hand, Belarusians do not pay for gas at market prices for many years. There is a huge difference."

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