Belarusian officials reject the possibility of dialogue between government and opposition. How can clarify this position? What is the role of the West in the probable negotiation process? Under what criteria it can happen?
Dobrovolsky: plus is the fact that the authorities have begun to mention the subject of negotiations
Valery Karbalevich: "One of the important components of the strategy of the opposition coalition, which was adopted at the last Congress of Democratic Forces, is the thesis of the dialogue with the authorities — as a means of Merit democratic change.
In other words, the opposition has shown a willingness to negotiate with political opponents.
But the authorities shall be removed from the dialogue with the opposition. CEC Chairman Lydia Yermoshina opposed discussion of configurations in the electoral law. House of Representatives delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE did not come to a round table with representatives of the opposition.
In the end, the chief ideologue of the sovereign Proleskovsky categorically opposed negotiations with the opposition. Not to say that it was sudden. But you explain to such a position of the authorities? "
Alexander Dobrovolsky, "At first, wanted to clarify that the negotiations with the authorities — is not the main, but the new element in the strategy of the opposition.
That such negotiations started faster, two things are needed: opposition should organize pressure on the authorities and dialogue with society, including with the elites.
Amazes us that the government is not willing to have a dialogue with the opposition and society. Because then you have to open a discussion nasty to power issues.
But the advantage is the fact that the authorities have begun to mention the subject of the talks. Incidentally, the ruling elite there are many people who understand the futility of the current political course. At some point, the authorities will be required to begin a dialogue to solve the problem of the existence of the forthcoming country. "
Kalinkina: "At the moment the format definition dialogue between Belarus and the West. Belarusian authorities are trying, that he was not the role of the opposition, that the West is not speeches intermediary in negotiations with management Belarus opposition and independent player. In this case, the dialogue may continue for a long time, it is an imitation of a dialogue.
But, as I see it, at the moment in Europe are many politicians who agree on the process, although some forward movement, rather than on results. It’s not safe. We have the example of Moldova. There were also samples of Europe to organize a round table. All ended up in parliament got some opposition politicians, and it announced success. Such a scenario could be repeated in Belarus. "
What is the role of the West in possible negotiations?
Karbalevich: "Indeed, the strategy of the opposition a major player in the evolutionary process of democratization in Belarus is the West. Specifically, under pressure of the European Union and the United States should the Belarusian authorities to negotiate.
But maybe the problem is that the Belarusian democratic society lays down very great hopes in the West. Hence, certain disorders of than read as you, Ms. Kalinkina.
But the EU has lifted economic preferences Belarus. Introduced visa restrictions for a number of high-ranking officials, and sanctions against their bank accounts. An increasing number of IT projects. This, for sure, one maximum, which can go in today’s West criteria.
On the other hand, is it really so bad if the West would be a real player in these negotiations, and the opposition will be somewhere on the side? "
D.: "You do not need so freely interpret our strategy. Necessary to recall all of its elements. Indeed, the basic element which must force the power to negotiate, is the pressure of the Belarusian society. But pressure from the West will be only additional value. Yet there is one important factor — is the impact of socio-economic situation.
As for the policy of the West, we are interested in, so that all Western actors have acted in the same way. Earlier, there were huge contradictions between the U.S. and the EU, between individual European countries. Currently such contradictions less.
I do not see that the activities of the West somehow contradicts the strategy of democratic forces. But to achieve a fully unified position is unlikely to succeed.
That senior OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Rene van der Linden is committed to dialogue with the management of Belarus. But during his visit to Minsk, he made it a condition that met with Lukashenko only if he is allowed to visit Kozulin in the bullpen.
The opposition believes that it should be part of the negotiations between the Belarusian authorities and the West. Because we need to have an impact on their own western partners with whom it is easier to read than with our authorities. Belarusian business should open a discussion Belarusians brokered the West. "
Karbalevich "Ms. Kalinkina, here you are cautioned that the West may have their own interests that do not coincide with the interests of the Belarusian democratic society. But the official position of the EU and the U.S. is quite tough: first steps towards democratization in Belarus, and only later thawing relations. Based on what your anxiety? "
Kalinkina: "The position of each country in the western Belarusian issue is different. For example, at the last session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the Polish delegation voted with the delegations of Belarus and the Russian Federation against the resolution on the Belarusian issue, which had never before experienced.
Belarusian MFA works dot, with each state, highlighting on the first plan of economic projects. Currently in the West are increasingly sounds idea that maybe these economic projects and should start cooperation with Belarus. This is a longish strategy re Belarusian government.
I am afraid that such a strategy will be specifically taken into service the West. I think the opposition Belarusian Foreign Ministry starts to play in the fight for the West’s position — which had never before experienced. "
And under what criteria negotiations can happen?
Karbalevich: "What to expect from the West when in Belarus itself, nothing happens? Main thesis of officials with regard to this question is: no one with whom to engage in dialogue, the opposition is not a powerful force.
And under what criteria can hold talks between the government and the opposition? What do I have to do the opposition? "
D.: "I’m sharing is largely anxiety Kalinkina. Danger pragmatic victory lane in the West’s position there. This is evidenced by the fact that abolished the mandate of the UN Special Rapporteur on Belarus Severin.
New rapporteur of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Italian deputy Rigoni certainly is influenced by the Belarusian authorities. Diplomats used Belarus scandal Belarusian kids stay in Italy to influence Italian politics.
Belarusian authorities will negotiate with the opposition only on the condition that they usvoyut that no other option. This will happen when the government will immediately put pressure on the socio-economic situation, the West and the Belarusian society.
For this opposition should reach even greater public support, than presently . "
Kalinkina: "The Emperor said in Proleskovsky this issue everything on this score reflects power. He noted that the government will not negotiate because the opposition is weak.
But according to sociological studies, the Belarusian opposition has the support of 30-40% of the population. For all international standards it is very a lot. This means that in fact our opposition — a powerful political force.
Another thing is that this support is not active, not mobilized at the appropriate time and in an appropriate location. Because the main factor influencing the situation — domestic. And we need to work with the community.
Also must be correctly formulated position on what we expect from the policy of the West towards Belarus. And in some cases, not smuschyatsya and criticize those policies or other politicians or those of other states. "