Examination of Freedom: Why the Belarusian ruble wish to decouple from Russian?

Subsequent year National Bank of Belarus wants to abandon binding official rate of the Belarusian ruble to the Russian ruble. Is this a daklyaratsyi political base? What is the economic meaning of such plans? How it impacts on trade with Russia, the impact on the real state of the Belarusian people everyday?
Financial or political base rejection of pegging the Belarusian ruble to the Russian?
Valery Karbalevich: "In connection with adgrymelay just another gas war between Russia and Belarus all the information about the relationship of 2-perceived conflict context. That information about the intention of the National Bank, followed by a year to abandon binding official rate of Belarusian ruble to the Russian, many took it as a political move. For example, it is regarded as the last head of the National Bank Bogdankevich. And last Russian politician, now a financier Nechayev said that the move means an end to discussions about the transition of Belarus to the Russian ruble. So whether it daklyaratsyya political base? Either this is a purely economic move? "
Leonid Zlotnikov: "National Bank offered no justification for his position. Already a couple of years more than half of our foreign trade provides a buck. Around one third of the turnover provides Russian ruble.
Political base of this solution I see is that the vectors of Belarus and Russia significantly crawl. And this leads to the need for our management to dissociate itself from Russia. To Moscow impact on the Belarusian economy and politics was the smallest. "
Boris Zheliba: "I think there are both economic and political reasons. There is a global practice, when the currency of the country with a feeble economy is bound to a stronger currency.
I believe that within 3 in recent years Belarusian ruble is not tied to the Russian ruble and a buck. And the National Bank keeps the exchange rate constant is time-consuming. According to the plan of the National Bank, the Belarusian ruble against the Russian should fluctuate year in the range of 2-4%. Considers it binding for the Russian ruble can be very arbitrary.
I believe that linking our ruble to buck justified. At the moment of the dollar against the euro, Russian ruble and other currencies decreases. And in the same proportion as such reduced rate of Belarusian ruble.
Russian ruble gets stronger due to export Russian oil and gas. In Belarus, there are no resources, so our funds could grow stronger and even contained within these 2-4%. Therefore it is necessary to get rid of the ruble and tied only to buck. Even in Belarus’ trade with Russia about 50% of payments kept in dollars. In including, payments for gas and oil.
Another point: according to the socio-economic plans, payment of wages growth occurs in dollars. Here previous year have gained $ 300 limit, then planned increase in average salaries in the country up to 400-500 dollars. And if the dollar falls, reach targets will be easier.
As for political context. I think the question of transition of Belarus to the Russian ruble closed. It is filmed with a day or agenda. This decision of the National Bank — the RF signal that no monetary union will not. "
What is the economic meaning of these plans?
Karbalevich: "From the expressions of Zheliba that bind to buck at the National Bank of views seems best than the ruble. Indeed dollar weakens, and the Russian ruble pamatsnyaetstsa. And binding to buck hides gradual devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, coupled with the weakening of the dollar" .
Zlotnikau: "That’s right. Financial situation in the country is such that the government seeks to restrict the import of products. As needed currency to pay off debts. And the best method to solve the puzzles of this would decrease the possibility of purchasing the Belarusian ruble.
Currency of any country must reflect the level of economic development. In Russia and Belarus different conditions of development.
Karbalevich: "But managing Belarus panic fears depreciation of the Belarusian ruble. Lukashenko has once again recalls the situation during the New oil and gas crisis, when many people ran to the banks to withdraw their deposits. And the authorities are afraid of a repetition of this panic. Because trying to keep the exchange rate at any cost. "
Zlotnikau "to appease the people, you can increase interest rates on deposits and such makarom fill devaluation. "
Zheliba: "The authorities have reason to fear a devaluation. Indeed, in December and January there was panic that the National Bank overcame difficult. Now the population is the main donor of our banking system. And therein lies the danger for the banks. Indeed tradesman closely dogs specifically Belarusian ruble buck. And if there is even a small devaluation, then maybe people will rush to the banks to convert ruble deposits into cash. And it can for a short term lay our banks. Because the management of the country is trying by all means to delay the Belarusian ruble to the buck. "
Zlotnikau: "All this is true. But the content of the Belarusian ruble against the interests of our exporters. Enterprises exporting products, interested in weakening of the ruble.
This contradiction could be solved during the transition to a free exchange rate of the ruble. After all, in order to support the national currency exchange rate to some of the world — for example, a buck, you must have money for supplies. And they have small ".
Zheliba: "I do not believe that the Belarusian ruble we supported administrative methods. Notice: Belarusian ruble falls against the euro and Russian ruble, coupled with the bucks. And this is the element of market kursavtvarennya"
National Bank plans as working on trade with Russia?
Karbalevich: "If the intention of the National Bank will be realized, or will not create problems in this trade with Russia, which accounts for about 50% of our foreign trade?"
Zheliba: "Indeed, our exporter profitable devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. Overall exporter of any country is profitable devaluation of the national currency. And if we absolutely advyazhamsya from Russian ruble, which grows stronger compared with bucks, then our businesses exporting it will be profitable. As for received cash proceeds they will be able to purchase more in the domestic market. But indigenous configurations in trade with Russia will not. "
Zlotnikau: "No significant effect on trade between Belarus and Russia will not. Zabugornyh on markets, prices for our products and services consist of many reasons. Prices for Russian market Baksova terms will not change.
As the impact of plans by a real position of the National Bank of ordinary people?
Karbalevich: "Will the National Bank is intent on the welfare of the Belarusian people? Or, maybe it does not touch them?
Zheliba: "If our ruble would be devalued against Russian ruble bolshennymi pace than anticipated by the National Bank forecasts, it will lose investors, that have deposits in Belarusian rubles. And benefit depositors having deposits in Russian rubles. Also vygadayuts banks with huge deposits in Russian rubles. "
Zlotnikau: "Everything depends on the rate of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble to the Russian ruble. If the speed is low, the special losses or gains can not see.
But in a situation of rapid configurations are people who need to convert Belarusian rubles in Russian, get less. Conversely, holders of Russian rubles will benefit. "

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