Operation successor in Belarusian?

Drakakhrust: "This week davneshny personal friend of Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Kanaplyou submitted his resignation as chairman of the House of Representatives" for health reasons ". Care 1st of the latter, and not counting Viktor Sheiman, then the last member of the first team Lukashenko has spawned many versions and interpretations. Victor Martinovic which version seems true or at least more plausible to you? "
"I beheld that the majority of deputies this resignation was the miracle, even very informed MPs were confused." V. Martinovic
Martinovic, "I seem more plausible version of the financial retirement. On her opportunity, I heard another six months backwards from people who are active in economics, not politics. I beheld that the majority of deputies this resignation was the miracle, even very informed MPs were embarrassed. In the web was formulated many theories as to how the economic reasons for the sovereign Kanaplyou could resign., for example, offers a version about his presence in the oil market. In my opinion, this version is one of the more affordable. "
Drakakhrust: "Sergei Nikoliuk and what to you seems more plausible? After his resignation saying that the emperor often confused Kanaplyou your pocket with municipalities, while it did" not by rank, "other states that do interfere Kanaplyou car ‘ ‘career Viktor Lukashenko. "
"The essence of this power — share resources. Resources And not that completed, but they appear tension." S. Nikoliuk
Nikoliuk: "To be honest, I’m not an expert on personalities. But who such sovereign Kanaplyou? What he became famous for the country? His personal ties to the president. And now something is not pleased. Regarding economic version, it seems to me reasonable. SUMMARY this power — to share resources. A resource is not that scarce, but there is tension with them. fully Because it may be that the problem may occur when it is brand new redistribution. "
Drakakhrust: "Vitaly, what do you think, what was the reason for the departure of Vladimir Konopleva? There is another version of this, so to speak," historical "- authoritarian rulers at some point, but never get rid of those who were with them when- then you. "
"COMPLETE free, sybarytski period when it was possible and most live and enable others to live." V. Tsigankov
Tsigankov: "You, Yuri apparently have the gift of foresight and predicted what I wish to say. I wish to focus on this particular "version of history." Resignation Konopleva — this historical pattern from all points of view. Assuming 2-theses — first, that in 1994 there was a social revolution in Belarus, as many of the current leading wrote "Prague accent", and the second thesis that the revolution devours its own children — this is a law of history in Belarus came true when This was fulfilled in two steps. First wave of supporters — Lebedko Fyaduta, Bulahov, Gonchar was pushed from power almost immediately, within the first year. And their departure meant the coming of a new step — the stabilization of power around a catchy personality, not the brightest personalities of the team. In this regard, care Konopleva else can explain some personal factors, but if you leave and Sheyman, then it will be conclusive evidence of the coming of another step. Which, while no one really can not say. But it seems that the meaning of this step is that the free ends, sybarytski period when could and most live, and enable others to live. This "stagnation" and ends come tougher time tougher economic affairs, tougher wizard. Cannabis in this sense is not enough to produce utility. "
Kanaplyou — the future of Moscow’s protege?
Drakakhrust: "At a conference in Kiev this week BDG editor Peter Martsau read about the formation in Belarus, so to speak," the Russian party. "Do not you think that Konopleva care" for health reasons "- a method not only to remain at liberty , and in politics and specifically within itself "Russian project." What’s wrong with the leader, what’s not metropolitan successor Vitaly, a question for you "

"I think it probably expects Tityankova fate." V. Tsigankov

Tsigankov: "What Kanaplyou want to return to politics, while the back is not on the side of Lukashenko — this version, to put it mildly, mind-boggling. I fully agree with Svetlana Kalinkina, which said in our air that Konoplev at the moment the most important thing — to save themselves. reported that he left the sanatorium in Sochi, where rested. Also, it became clear that his wife quit her job. It still remembers stampede. And now if he tries to advance in a sense, he is aware that his crush, and at the same time with great pleasure. He alienated many in the business and its business members, so that there is a desire to crush him many. example, he currently try to wait and come back later, as, for example, Sinitsyn . Kanaplyou But even if was in office, there were scandals constantly motivated his business interest. And the government has a lot of compromising him. And in case of return, besides supratsuladnaga, Konoplev not have to think about the car» , career, and about his own freedom. I think its likely fate awaits Tityankova that he will live here and abroad, most likely in Russia, softly, softly, without getting in Belarusian affairs. "

"I’m at ease do not see any" Russian project "which would labiyavavsya Russia itself." S. Nikoliuk

Nikoliuk: "It’s difficult to add anything to the words of Vitaly. I believe that at the present moment the highest Belarusian ruling elite is incapable of independent political production steps. This does not mean that she would be unable to do them tomorrow, in crisis criteria. But now — no . addition, the simplicity I do not see any "Russian project" which would labiyavavsya Russia itself. has little connection with the Russian analysts suggest his absence. Our homeland began keeping the latest policy not only with regard to Belarus, and in for all CIS countries. No there is nothing specifically Belarusian. No project now. "
Martinovic "version of" Russian project "sounds funny to me too. In my opinion, 10 years ago," the Russian party "in the Belarusian authorities were even more than at the moment. Then power structures vznachalvalisya persons with a very specific way of thinking. A active moment, it seems to me, is formed "the Belarusian project" in the Belarusian authorities, as it is funny. Regarding Konopleva care in the context of "Russian project", then there is also gibberish. Byasplennasts lobbying Leonid Sinitsyna suggests the idea that the "Russian project" No intrigued of, "Gazprom", which Sinicyn lobbyist tries to act. "
Personnel search: power crisis or strengthen it?
Drakakhrust: "In some views of professionals segodnyaschy Konopleva resignation, if you look at it in totality arrest Borowski, cleaning the KGB and other events of this kind — the certificate of increase in the deepest contradictions peremptory Belarusian elite. But, say, Stalin cleaning is not indicated any vnutrysystemnyya any contradictions. A show in Belarus? Have not unexpected resignation Konopleva Belarus certain similarity with the same unusual and unexpected resignation in Fradkov and Zubkov destination? Sergei, the first question for you. "

"If at times he will not change the frames, it will not be the first face of the country, it is his function to manifest itself as a power — to change frames." S. Nikoliuk

Nikoliuk: "If you, Yuri, spent some historical parallels, I am also forced to announce a few words about this. This system of government personnel policy — it is the base. Lukashenko in 1994, becoming only the president, said:" The Administration of the State I will do through the personnel policy. "What he has done so far. If at times he will not change the frames, it will not be the first face of the country, it is his function to manifest itself as a power — to change frames. As for Stalin’s purges, you need to correctly provide for themselves that when Stalin became the first person in the state, he was surrounded by people in a certain sense it equal, people who were not anything he should. ‘Cause all of them he had to change, in other words, to "kill Lenin guard" and place it on all levels of people who owe him everything. Which he did. Lukashenko as a whole, this process has long been finished. Vladimir Kanaplyou was a figure quite independent, contrary to the nature of this power. Hence these configurations. Suffice it to recall Kasyanov in Russia, who as Prime & # 39; ‘EPA began to claim some independence. Regarding direct parallels with Russia, can I say except the similarity of the models themselves power. "
Martinovic, "contradiction is where there is a struggle. It seems to me that the resignation Konopleva — certificate — no struggle, and in some sense the reverse phenomenon. Yet only recently we had several groups in power who were interested in pursuing their own interests . Now we we see, that one of these groups is almost entirely "tipped", a favorite of the other groups, no one takes wssd» ithout and rumors about his diplomatic purpose. So it’s not the controversy, it gamagenizatsyya business landscape . Main question — who it mattersis, and why? Certain people, certain forces presently come to control most of the economy, it is particularly advantageous over directions. As for similarities with the resignation of Fradkov and Zubkov destination, then we know that it came as part of "successor". Similarly, we can state that there is some similarity, because a number of Belarusian professionals states that "Operation Successor" began in Belarus and that the political and economic space of Belarus "trimmed" by some successor whose name is called. Of course, the retired Konopleva banished NOT Viktor Lukashenko. Of course, it did not and some businessmen who presently intensively Belarusian market share. But the fact that they have access to the president and that the president follows in the footsteps of their interests, says about very nearly everything. "
At what step operation "successor"?
Drakakhrust: "Viktor Martinovich had already begun to talk about his own namesake. Many professionals sees prerequisites Konopleva resignation that he had obstructed the movement to power of Viktor Lukashenko, Tipo father prepares to succeed. Though it should be said that Lukashenka himself more than once denied the existence of such plans, the last time — in an interview with the French Le Monde. But for some, it views the finished project, and alternately unswerving implementation has already begun. Others believe that the project exists only in the minds of a certain range of analysts and journalists. How do you think, Vitali? "

"Before the presidential elections in 2006 by Lukashenko pretty wssd» ithout considered version of the successor, not about Victor, but about some other person." V. Tsigankov

Tsigankov "version of Viktor Lukashenko brings us to an immaterial substance such as temper of his father, Alexander Lukashenko. And here whoever presented himself great connoisseur of this substance — no one can say for certain. I can say that I know. Before the presidential 2006 election Lukashenko himself quite wssd» ithout considered version of the successor, not about Victor, but about some other person. enumerates various candidates, but none of them are not suitable. I were in charge of people from the political environment and from the environment parapsyholyagav, soothsayers, astronomers who "advise" the head of state. final decision to go for third term was made late enough. man he put it mildly, not very naive. Lukashenko himself said, that on such a position is not friends can be. It takes power as a struggle, as the top destination. One can recall a lot of quotes, I suggest, for example, this: "I said to myself, thank God, have a president who can maintain stability in society." This — a significant difference from Putin, who refers to the power in sybarytsku remember it in the census in the "occupation" wrote: "I render services population." And when Lukashenko on the one hand does not trust anyone, and on the other — thinks that once would have to leave this post, it is clear that the idea of the person whom he trusts to a certain extent, on the offspring, he can not come. This project has not been approved at all. It is very different to expect from its consequences. Well, do not read, as it will take the Belarusian population, "Lud, the Belarusian people …" — I will not quote further Maxim Bogdanovich, who knows, he knows, and who do not know, so may not need this quote leads. However, this option will bring a lot of problems on the outer edge. It does not seem to take neither the West nor our homeland, and it is unclear how strong is their opposition. So the combination of those intangible, personal characteristics approach to this option, and the fact that in all other respects it is not very suitable, it is clear what will end this fight in the soul of Alexander Lukashenko. "
Drakakhrust: "Sergey, well, you do not parapsyholyag not astronomers, but just only a political scientist, but maybe you have your own look at this dilemma. And in your opinion, to what extent is the project ready?"
Nikoliuk: "Specifically, as a political scientist, I wish to say that during the years of Alexander G. own board made from Belarus" Unitary Enterprise "with one owner. And like a real winner, he obviously thinks about what are the prospects to whom he will give it . There are two aspects. If we’re talking about, perceive whether a successor must razroznivats two points: the adoption by whom? Adoption of society — is one thing. These issues are addressed by the PR activities. I believe that Alexander G. this issue has not engaged . But his future successor in the person of Victor or anyone else, must also consolidate the elite around him. These questions PR companies are hesitant. Here it is necessary to be able to keep this elite in the manual. And Victor introduction into real action, training this science it occurs before our eyes. But do not put a definite purpose, in particular, Alexander Lukashenko leaves. He will stay in power until such time as his legs will move somehow. "
Drakakhrust: "Viktor Martinovich, you started this topic, For I give you the opportunity to speak, and eventually — the extent to which this project readiness, which causes depends on its upcoming fate? In an interview with Le Monde, Alexander Lukashenko stressed that in order to govern the state, we need nature, need a powerful hand. And if it does not have offspring, then this post is for him faster threat. "

"There is a gradual process of reducing the presence of the President in all areas of public life V. Martinovic."

Martinovic, "I really believe in what he says about the offspring, but continued to insist that the operation" successor "is. I just do not think that in the context of this option should speak only about the offspring. It can be assumed, but most likely, we are dealing with a recent team. course, that such a strong personality led the country as at the moment, no longer that most state control circuit will be different. newcomer team is currently in the shade in politics, but She already gets all of the tools of control over the economy. But even speaking about politics, should see those positions that are released after the resignations in recent months are filled with enough young people up to 30 years. I believe there is a big project is brought new people to authorities, who until the moment when this power must be transferred, this state will have to really manage. Belarus In my opinion the standard in September 2007 ruled by President even lower power than it was ruled by two or even a year earlier. Occurs smooth process of reducing the presence of the President in all sectors of public life. Even if we’ll see how the president is currently on television and how much of it was five years back, we can see that it goes into the shadows. reason — not his desire and his spin doctors to give advice over the European Belarus view, namely the process of change of elites. As for legitimation of that power, then I am sure that this — the last question. Currently neither the president nor those people, that may come after him, really do not care, take them and take them Europe Belarus. In societies like the Belarusian … Look, our homeland was quite liberal open society in the process of transferring power from Yeltsin to Putin. But everything went very well, Putin accepted. It’s just insignificant nuance. "
There is a lot!?
Drakakhrust: "Victor, you uttered here, about the latest scheme of government. It is possible that one of these new schemes have already worked through. It is about the party" Snow White Russia. "Formation of this education is somehow seems even CEC Chairman Lydia Yarmoshina not rule out that "Snow White Rus" adequately perceive role in the subsequent parliamentary elections. " But some professionals on the background experience of the Russian and Kazakh "parties of power" has seen an uprising in Belarus such as games with Viktor Lukashenko, by the way, at the helm. How do you assess this perspective, from what and from whom it depends on implementation? "
Martinovic, "I’m sure it does not have any work to politics or to Viktor Lukashenko." Party of power "Snow White Rus" — it is a business project. Those people who once led through the corridors of the presidential administration boy who later made BPYU, currently prowling the corridors of power with the project "Pure white Russia." Jani realized that such projects very quickly and very well, you can get a great deal. I know these people, and they are sitting not in the presidential administration. G. Alexander himself is a politician who wants the party in power, it is anti-party politician, he is a politician elements, policies of the masses. And by the way, what happened with the parties in power in Russia should assure him that projects like "Snow white Russia" or BPYU-BRYU simply ineffective. If BPYU population had 2,000 people and spoke before the cameras in support of the president, he was effective. If BRYU became more than 400 thousand people, no one remembers, for which so many people recorded in this business. But certain people at certain times got very specific resources and this was the meaning, as in the case of "snow-white Rus".
Nikoliuk: "We often use the term" regime. "This is a multifaceted concept. Wish I am here to bring world-Russian political scientist Lilia Shevtsova, according to which" the political regime — this first embodiment of the method and style of leadership. "We do not live just under an authoritarian regime, we live under the authoritarian regime of Lukashenko. has a personal steel. And while he was head of the country, this style can not fundamentally share, and in this style any parties place. In this regard, I wish to recall the words of Deputy Chief of Staff Anatoly Rubinov Lukashenko in an interview with "People’s Will ":" The President does not need no party, he was elected president of the nationwide, it is supported by all the people, regardless of religious, national, and even more so of party affiliation. "Alexander G. on his own populist nature. populist — is the person who makes the mobilization of society directly, is bureaucratic and other components. And while he was in power, no political parties, including the "party of power", there is no place. "
Tsigankov: "I really liked the fact that Viktor Martinovich read about the" reduction "of the president, the transfer is not just possible, but certain weight from it to a certain group of people. And in this sense I do not completely agree with my interlocutors about itself too byaskryvdnastsi purely business-minded project "Snow White Rus". It seems to me that this project is about holding in store. At the moment, explain why. Obviously, this game has a value only in such a system, where the Parliament decides something, where the chief need some backup, it is true read Sergey Nikoliuk, in a system where the favorite addresses the people, a party needs. And we know, as at this time Alexander Lukashenko spoke about such an idea. We we see, what’s going on with this "snow-white Rus". Then its meeting place in one day and displayed on BT, it is absolutely nothing and nothing about a week, we do not feel this party. So Makar and inside there is a struggle for power or prospects futility of this project. But in the system, which read Victor, when the president — less, and more opportunities — burning or possible, go to a modern team, in such a situation "Snow White Rus" and may need, as a parliamentary party as the party of the parliamentary majority. And in this other system, it can be very principled. And if the structure is composed of mandatory and Switch "Snow White Rus" will acquire a huge informational support, and not sporadically, but constant, this would indicate that she was really suitable for a change in government. "

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