Participants: economists Leonid Zlotnikov Alexander Chubrik.
International monetary fund gave another estimate and forecast of development of the Belarusian economy. Than clarify that IMF projections on Belarus is often not realized?
Is it possible to assess the non-market economy using market criteria? Will the last growth of gross characteristics?
What is important in the economy: the results or the means?
Valery Karbalevich: "As usual, the IMF estimates the state of the Belarusian economy is contradictory. With one side, notes that in recent years, Belarus has also achieved significant success, "It’s amazing macroeconomic performance."
On the other hand, these successes have been achieved, relatively speaking, "wrong way", in other words the price of a cheap energy, preferential loans, increase of salaries by the authorities.
But does not it seem to you that the question itself is enough of weird?
As they say football experts at the main and most beautiful in football — it’s the score. So, maybe, such an approach can be applied to the economy — the main results, not the means of their merits? "
Leonid Zlotnikov: "It is hard to give an impartial assessment of the economy of Belarus until our homeland on a huge scale subsidizing it. There must not give an economic assessment, and some other.
Studies show that if a frog kipyatochek throw in, it is possible to arrange a career and still live. And when she is in the water, which is warmed slowly, then it will die. That Belarusian economy at the moment, as energy prices rise evenly, may die. "
Alexander Chubrik: "I would not say that the IMF estimates inconsistent. International monetary fund sufficiently assessed the situation impartially. The paper noted Belarus enjoyed low prices for Russian energy resources. Also appreciated the policy of the Belarusian authorities to maintain monetary stability.
Once noted that if the authorities will continue to lure foreign cash resources to make up for the lack of foreign trade, it reflected badly on the economy.
Belarusian authorities, which failed to attract significant foreign loans to This time do not understand those problems that zvilisya economy. Instead of reform, they continue with their policy, only more tsentralizavali cash flows. "
Is the Belarusian economy is a mystery to the IMF?
Karbalevich: "The IMF is constantly criticizes the economic policies of the Belarusian authorities, believes that it is incorrect, but the results are referred to as" astonishing. "
Does it seem to you, that the Belarusian economy — some lurking for the IMF and other international financial organizations? Their predictions are almost always not realized, the actual economic outcomes usually are best. Than clarify this? "
Zlotnikau: "The conclusions of the IMF noted that the significant increase in gross characteristics undeniable, but the reason that provide this growth — unstable.
On the other hand, the IMF is only concerned with the macroeconomic analysis. For example, in This year significantly increased budget surplus. But this came at the price of surplus that the government takes a greater toll on producers of oil. In other words, the surplus produced artificially. But this is not the IMF notes.
The IMF does not notice that the consumer price index calculations do not reflect the growth of retail prices. Because not all makrapakazchyki reflect the real state.
And another example. Here Belarusian radio broadcast that energy conservation committee has reported on the end of the energy conservation plans for 2006 by 103%. And according to the calculations of academics, this plan was fulfilled by 67%. In other words, there is a registry, as the authoritarian government has requested the runtime characteristics of the gross. "
Karbalevich: "Indeed, the fact that the authorities recognize additions. Not accidentally introduced legislation in the configuration, whereby officials responsible for registration, will allure to criminal liability. "
Chubrik: "The Belarusian economy has been a certain mystery to international financial organizations until 2004. In that year, such economic growth (11%) were not wanted. Then and representatives of international organizations long studied characteristics, calculation methodology.
Both the IMF and the Global Bank concluded that there are problems with the methodology of calculation of industrial production growth. But they concluded that, overall, official characteristics reflect the real state.
In 2005, the IMF and the Global Bank’s own reports explained to why their predictions are not realized. First, since skyrocketed oil prices. As a result, Belarus import price a cheap Russian oil and petroleum product sales limit for receiving excess profits, which is distributed throughout the economy.
At the moment, the event considered the IMF and the Global Bank’s own projections, because they are closer to reality.
But once zabugornye of experts waiting in Belarus market reforms. But the Belarusian authorities to carry them out are not going to, and partly so in the short term get the best performance than predicted by the IMF. "
Is it possible to assess the non-market economy using market criteria?
Karbalevich: "Maybe the problem is that the Belarusian financial model can not be analyzed with the help of a tool that uses the IMF.
After the Belarusian economic entities do not react to market conditions and market signals, and by order of the municipal officials. In other words, it is difficult to assess the non-market economy by market criteria. "
Zlotnikau: "It’s true. For example, GDP can be considered only in a market economy where prices are available. In Belarus isOn no.
2nd example. At the beginning of 2006 hours on supplies Minsk Watch Factory were 13 months of production (currently, the figure is 19 months). In a market economy, such an enterprise would no longer be. But we have such factories and their products are taken into account in the calculation of GDP. "
Chubrik: "If we are talking about the short-term economic performance during the analysis period, the acts of the authorities here give huge index. If we estimate a long period, then there is a different situation.
Belarus is not in space. It exists, develops economic affairs with countries where more or less the market economy. Our homeland even more market and Ukraine. And we have to work on market principles. Because in the long term evaluation of the IMF and other international organizations will be quite adequate. "
Zlotnikau: "But the specifics of our economy and the impact on performance in the long run. For example, according to the Department of Statistics for the years 1996-2006 real wages of people have quadrupled. But if these earnings are counting on the basis of their purchasing opportunities, the growth comes only in two times. "
What is the forecast for the development of the Belarusian economy?
Karbalevich: "How to appreciate the forecast for the development of the Belarusian economy in 2012, which gave the IMF? Will last gross growth characteristics?"
Chubrik: "We also made a prediction of the Belarusian economy. Probably several scenarios. IMF forecast made on the basis of the average scenario. It foreshadows a slowdown.
There is not a good scenario when dealings with Russia will develop bad, we will lose this market. Then we can expect GDP decline, deterioration of households.
But you can wait and positive scenario when to start reforms will be made significant investment in energy, which can give huge returns. "
Zlotnikau: "The IMF gave a forecast that due to the increase in prices for energoelementy loss to Belarus in 2012 will amount to 10-15% (5 billion dollars). This does not decrease the growth rate by a given amount, and the additional loss in comparison with 2006.
This year Belarus loses about 2 billion dollars. If there were no external debt, the growth rate would be reduced by 5%. A foreign loans supporting our economy. "
Participants: economists Leonid Zlotnikov Alexander Chubrik.