With Europe — against Russia?
Drakakhrust: "September 19, the European Commission made proposals on the reform of the EU energy market, which rightfully can be called revolutionary. Sense proposal is, in the 1-x, in the de-monopolization of the state of energy markets in the countries of the Union, and in-2, in the transference the level of the whole Union questions about selling energy infrastructure of Union foreign monopolies. Simply speaking, the national gas and oil monopolies, say, France, Germany, Italy must be broken, and the question, for example, the sale of "Gazprom" British gas distribution networks must address The European Commission, with the most likely solve negatively.
It should be noted that the Belarusian municipal media, ideologically not seen in the love of economic liberalization, hot Brussels welcomed the proposals to reform» of a united Europe. There are two questions: how this concept can be realized? And second — which benefits from its implementation, or even attempts to implement Belarus can get? "
Rahr: "It is very hard to say yet how Belarus would be able to fit into the latest EU energy doctrine. Necessary to say that in the Union, the European Commission received new offers versatile. Struggle about the future of European politics is inside the Euro Union.
What the Commission proposes, excellent for small countries and for those countries where gas and oil industry completely privatized. In France, it is certainly not so in Germany, too, there is a huge monopoly in the oil and gas industries, so that at least those two countries will oppose these proposals.
Our homeland, which does not go into the European Union is obviously also be against the new regulations. Belarus, which is one of the main transit Russian energoelementov the West, of course, is "yes" with 2 hands, as it will benefit from the decentralization of these monopolies in Europe, including "Gazprom" if it continued to be one of the main suppliers to the European market. So Belarus in this great energy game will find their niche.
But not all so simple. In 1-x, very very Belarus is dependent on Russian energoelementov. I can not imagine for themselves which method Azerbaijani oil can now enter Belarus. And in-2, Belarus itself very late in the privatization of its energy transport systems. And the European Union will create certain tasks in cooperation with the state, where the government has such great control over the economy. "
Drakakhrust: "Natalia Leshchenko, and what your answers to these two questions: first — as a concept can be implemented, and another — which benefits from its implementation or sample implementation can get Belarus?"
Leshenko: "On the first question the answer is quite simple. I have no doubt that if this concept has been adopted, it will be implemented at the level of European policy at the EU level. Was a lot of debate before the document was approved.
The very thought of the Energy Charter itself appeared in the wake of a very strong "leftist" sentiments in the midst of the European public, which the European bureaucrats are obliged to react. Currently in Europe very stylish fight against monopolies, it is, moreover, very topical in the context of the fight against climate configuration, which is currently very strong in the West. The fact that this Charter was adopted — it is quite reasonable, and if the documents of this kind are taken at the European level, they may not be very fast, but still produced.
Regarding the second question, it is more exciting. It is unclear what benefit can get from Belarus this Charter, except symbolic. Obtain economic assistance, funds for the signing of the charter may be, but it is very difficult to say how big this assistance may be.
As for the symbolic value, then I was not striking publication in "Russian Belarus." It is fully in line with the reasoning that Belarus should withstand the pressure of something huge, imperial and stern that is usually interpreted as our homeland, but it can also be interpreted as a European gas monopoly.
Belarus signing such Charter — big conceptual step, because it means to withdraw from the Russian Federation and to the side of the EU. Russian government, Russian society perceive these energy initiatives of the European Commission as an aggressive act. "
Drakakhrust: "Natalia, you always reads about the Energy Charter. But as I know, Energy Charter — a document signed in 1991, which has a fairly declarative nature. And in this case I’m talking about the Commission’s proposal, which, if adopted, will have a temper euros law of mandatory for all States to implement the EU. What do you mean when you talk about the Energy Charter? "
Leshenko: "I mean the document, which was adopted on September 19. Here it is commonly referred to as the European Charter."
Drakakhrust: "Peter Sadowski, we presently heard two views: Ms. Leshchenko said, that since the concept adopted, then at some point it would implement, but Rahr told the emperor that the proposals of the European Commission has already met a very strong opposition from the European "Grand" — France and Germany. And I have to for you the same question — whether the concept is implemented? And second question — that this struggle can win and lose than Belarus? "
Sadowski: "And it is fashionable, and semantic I very measured response to all this. We September 26 in the office of the BPF was a special conference, and we discussed this issue.
I agree with the epithet "revolutionary", which you have applied, describing the proposals. Nothing revolutionary here essentially failed. September 19 there was only a statement, a proposal that the European Parliament should discuss first, and then — the Council of Ministers of the European Union. And while these proposals will acquire the form of law, to be held for at least three years. According to what is said in political and business circles in Europe, is the process of a huge prospect.
As rightly saw my co-worker, at the moment in Europe are fighting for de-monopolization of the "mammoth" — energy giants. But it is not just fashion, it’s an endless dialectic of the Western economy. On the one hand, in the late XIX century, laws were passed to de-monopolization, on the other hand, with the 50-ies of XX century is developing so called "new karparatyvizm": monopoly lobby their interests, have their own representatives in parliament, etc.
I know perfectly well the situation in the German energy company "E.ON", in "WINGAZ" — German joint venture with "Gazprom" in "GAZ DE FRANCE". On their already long presses Brussels. But there will be a difficult process. And EU Commissioner can not order "E.ON", which employs 80 thousand people and untainted annual income is 6 billion euros. Commissioner will not allow him — and it is connected with the election, and with taxes and many other things. So it will be a long process.
As for the Russian case to this, in other words the concept of long-term Russian foreign policy. "Gazprom" is controlled by the government, and everything will be very viscous. And in connection with the European Charter can be said that the parties will adjust oneself to each other. Our motherland wants to join the World Trade company, and there is some leverage on it. It is not unusual — ordinary globalist competition and financial diplomacy.
What are the benefits for Belarus? I believe that there is a benefit. I recall here two Belarusian proverb: "A tender calf two uterine eat", and the second — "Aleksandryntsy by half." It was such hitretskaya the girl, who thanked all and each kryhachku shchylipala. We should probably find a good-quality partners, and partly demonopolize our energy system. Then quickly go to us, for now, as we we see, are frantically searching for funds.
On the other hand we should not spoil relations with Russia, and the expression of our favorite on "Dazhynki" I think it is fashionable unreasonable. We are at a conference in the office of the BPF discussed number — until we buy cheaper in Russia than it realizes Lithuania or other EU countries. So what we need to be "gentle calf" — balance, a prudent policy.
Statements Semashko Zabalotets in response to proposals the Secretary General of the Energy Charter Marne testify specifically about such an approach. Our representatives, and of Marne sovereign states that we should consult with Russia and make informed decisions. I would not read that it is a betrayal of the Russian Federation. "
Leshenko: "I think that the problem here is not in the EU and Belarus, and specifically in Russia, not only in its outer politics, but in the mentality of the Russian authorities, in the habit of divide the world into" own "and" outsiders "in effort to re-do Russian majestic power.
Then making President Putin is very well fit into this section of the world to "own" and "them." And because such zaigryvanni Our homeland of Belarus with the European Union will take very nervous. And it will not "give half" this gentle and hitretskoy Alyaksandryntsy. "
Drakakhrust: "I just wish to continue the conversation about the" halves ", but not in the East and the West. Here, too, has its problems.
Statements that sounded from the lips of European representatives in the last days, causing some surprise. Last week, a senior official of the European Union on Security Policy Javier Solana, in an interview with the weekly Ukrainian said Europe will not talk to Minsk even in energy security as Belarus will make significant steps towards democratization. And this week, arrived in Minsk Energy Charter Secretary General Andre Marne (as already read Sadowski sovereign) and conducted negotiations with the Belarusian dense bureaucrat that would do well to Belarus to ratify the document. Representatives of the Belarusian authorities have shown willingness and Tipo, but nodded to Moscow, which stands against the wall of the Charter, considering it almost as dyversyyu against Russian economy against "Gazprom".
In short, a dialogue still obviously occurs with one of the fundamental institutions of a united Europe, responsible for just energy. How, then, about the application of the sovereign Solana and other representatives of the European Union, that "we can not have a dialogue with the last dictatorship in Europe"? Sovereign Rahr, how would you comment this contradiction? "
Rahr: "I hit the statements of officials and politicians from the European Commission, who love to act on behalf of the whole of Europe, on behalf of the European industry, on personal business. I believe that it is frivolous. These ladies and gentlemen taught his vision of how the EU should conduct business. But in fact this is not so.
Emperor Sarkozy’s own energy policy is not fully looked at Brussels and North Africa makes it wishes. I believe that the German company if they currently receive benefits in Belarus, also will not open a discussion with their business plans Ms Ferrero-Waldner either sovereign Solana.
Especially since it is true for energy policy. Capital is not where he says the emperor Solana, and to where he can work productively. So if Belarus will open and will privatize its economy to the role of foreign investors, then things will go well.
But if Lukashenka want to keep everything in his own hands and hopes that someone in the West will help him preserve the system that exists in Belarus, I think he will soon lose these illusions.
Energy strategy is being developed in conjunction with energy companies and not in the offices of Ms Ferrero-Waldner or sovereign Solana. If the energy dialogue is conducted with Russia, he will cut one transit countries — Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Belarus, as without it? And commercial benefits plus those pipes that would either not be prakladatstsa.
Obviously, this policy dialogue will play a huge role. But we can not forget the general economic nuance. Pipelines do not build the country, and the company, we often forget about it.
But I repeat — all depends on how the economic way to go Belarus. I assure you that if there begin reforms which the EU expects more than 10 years, the West will want to participate. And it will seek to make economic, political and energy policy dialogue with Minsk. "
Drakakhrust: "The Emperor Sadowski, how would you explain this inconsistency in the statements of the representatives of the great European?"
Sadowski: "You know, Yuri, journalists in the coverage of these events is peculiar to certain alyarmizm, zeal and imagine it as a sensation. It seems to me that the word" inconsistency "here is not the place.
Javier Solana made his announcement in an interview with the Ukrainian weekly "Mirror of the week." Speaking of Belarus, Solana did certain message Ukrainian voters. It is clear that he is more sympathetic to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko than Yanukovych. And he did a demonstration, they say, look, we Belarus will not even read about those things in which we are interested. He practically quoted those davneshnie 12 EU criterion.
I agree with the sovereign Rahr, not Brussels bureaucrats to determine what will happen in the energy sector.
With regard to the Secretary General of the Energy Charter, the note that he had a meeting in Belarus and in Parliament and in the Council of Ministers. This is parallel to how Europe will take place in a discussion of energy proposals of the European Commission, of the European Charter — they will open a discussion the European Parliament and EU Council of Ministers.
I look at it as two parallel. We commentators always try each zhestse behold something huge and it fit to comment on. In this sense, the publication in the "Russian Belarus" of the European Charter on the tops of runs and does not affect the depth. A depth that nothing much is happening. Euroallied machine will move its route Our homeland — his. "
Drakakhrust: "Natalia, how would you explain this phenomenon, which I do not relate to the mysteries of European politics, seems still weird? One representative European states — no, we will not even read about energy, and the second — goes and tells . Because the same one to another mixed? "
Leshenko: "I is also striking. Pochetaemy sovereign Sadowski read it two in parallel. I would have said that it is one and the same process, and I do not see here a huge controversy. Since the beginning of this year is very, very slowly, very rastsyazhliva started interaction between Belarus and the EU, and what we are looking at the moment — is the usual "diplomatic dance".
So, again, Javier Solana stressed that Belarus should be a democratic state, as he say anything else and can not on their own positions. And the fact that after such statements "right hand", "left hand" makes completely different, why not, why not use the opportunity, why not keep the interaction with the Belarusian authorities on the issue, which for Europeans is very principled?
This is the usual diplomatic game, when the EU indicates that it has fundamentally position. But this is Europe, there are no structural behavior, then act differently — the principle outlined, and later went to develop a dialogue. "
Fight gas chimes
Drakakhrust: "Well, in the end we actually got to Belarus, to the fact that Belarus can offer the EU in this dialogue. I mean performance in celebration of Alexander Lukashenko" Dozhinki ", which has already recalled Peter Sadowski.
Among other things, the head of the country there has fallen sharply criticized for "Gazprom", stating that prices for Belarus Russian monopolist sets are the same as for Germany, and expressed hope that the agreement on gas for the next year will be signed "to fight the Christmas chimes." Usually, when expressed such hope, then diplomatic language to everyday he translates as a huge swing in that it really was going to happen.
I would not want to get anyone’s side, but it seems that in the past year December 31 specifically for the battle of the Kremlin bells in Moscow signed an agreement on gas supplies and transit not only for this year, then was determined and clear formula with a gradual increase in prices output in 2011 to average prices. If so, what is the reason today’s allegations and arguments, if it will work this year in time to sign a contract? And if this is not so, how? Sovereign Rahr, a question for you. "
Rahr: "I believe that after the first, fairly dramatic increases in gas prices, when six months have passed, in Minsk began convulsively count and realized that Belarus may not be of such funds to pay the highest price as Russian gas. And in Minsk seek out any ability that conditions with Russia differently. But it is very difficult.
Belarus is at a critical point of its own history, it should allow investors to his country — Russian, and who are currently working in the country or western. This is a fundamental political decision which must take leadership in Belarus. It’s hard because at the moment Lukashenko and his associates at the moment trying at the last minute to agree with Putin’s Russia or in their own pressure on Russia, which in the European context is also in a difficult position. It should also come up with a strategy, as further work with the West, and when the Russian front in the West, many doors are locked.
This strategy is diplomacy by Belarus at the moment is in relation to Russia. But I think that in the end "Gazprom" fails in its own terms and with transit countries and the European Union. It is very sensitive, especially here in Germany, dependence on Russian gas revenues. "
Drakakhrust: "Natalia, how would you explain the criticism of Lukashenko" Gazprom "and its allusions to the fact that this fall and winter can break out another Belarusian-Russian" gas war "?"
Leshenko: "We just talk about the fact that in Europe there is nothing unusual. Just even less extraordinary and these statements of the Belarusian president. From my perspective, it was necessary to expect such statements.
We beheld many times when the government signed some agreements, and later did what he was profitably. And I’m not talking only about Russia. However, "Beltransgaz" — a striking example, Our homeland is trying to buy it since 1994. But it is worth remembering and Russian beer corporation "Baltika", and the South American "Ford" and "McDonald’s", and many other examples.
This is such a management style. In any enforced criteria made any promises, but later, when the context is changed or there are new abilities or just passing time, the Belarusian government is doing what it needs. This is obviously not normal voluntarism, my colleagues and gentlemen Rahr Sadowski aptly used the word "feverishly" to finding funds, which currently makes the Belarusian government.
Our company "Global Insight" has not changed its assessment that Belarus is the real threat to monetary default. Belarusian management, in-1-x, enforced do, which can be, perakreslennem including contractual obligations to somehow keep the budget, and in-2, as I read, it is a style that’s how things work in the Belarusian authorities. "
Sadowski: "I like the last diplomat last salting in Germany, I think this style of unjustified. I would wish to see the expressions on the" Dozhinki "in the context of other expressions of our president. Here he said that" Gazprom "enriched by Belarus more than the expense of Germany — well, it’s a very populist thesis. It shows weakness and confusion of our president. If I were him, I would have worried and found a certain style.
Here he invited from Russia Gennady Seleznev. Who such Seleznev? Waste material, as I know it is not in the lists of parties that go into the Duma. Such a guest — just an excuse for some expressions.
Or else, is not very wise expression during a meeting with representatives of banking groups that come here, as they say, whole Vyatka: "If only I had the means, but they worked, where they came from, we are not very interested." I mean this conversation Tipo Luxembourg entrepreneur who undertakes to invest in coal project.
On the other hand, our president is doing right, if wary about a brand new Russian government. He still hopes that a loan will give us our homeland. Our homeland is currently far eastern state gives large funds to purchase guns — no funds for Belarus. With China, we are very good friends, and he did not give money. Gave the order to the head "Rayfayzenbanku", and he, as I know, does not give huge amounts of money. Means must be found. Sidorsky will meet with Zubkov later than planned.
I believe that we have enough common sense not to contract a chiming clock, and fit into the system they agreed to in 2011. Our homeland will not retreat from its own fyuchersnyh plans with Europe, and we — between Europe and Moscow. So you need to dance on a rope, you need to be smart. "