Why do the authorities fear the social interventions?

Of 458 applications to hold pickets in defense of social rights authorities met only three.
Than the reaction of the authorities to clarify this? What dangers are protests?
Why the authorities were not allowed to hold the pickets?
Valery Karbalevich: "On the mass opposition to the application for holding pickets authorities refused. Of 458 applications met only three.
Authorities do not allow pickets in defense of social rights virtually anywhere, even in Bangalore Square in Minsk.
Moreover, at the moment the police walking through the applicant’s flat and requests a written waiver from the pickets and campaigning for "Public march." How do you explain such a reaction from the authorities?
Sergei Kalyakin: "In the reaction of the authorities is nothing new, it is ordinary. But now the situation is different in the country. Because public shares may be unsafe for the authorities because they lure attention to dilemmas in society.
Almost authorities shall be removed from the provisions of our Constitution, where it is recorded Belarus is a social state. The opposition wants to send this vnimanie.Lyudi can behold that lord naked, the official propaganda, which says about the highest level of welfare in the country, is untrue. After all, the real state of the people is getting worse. Prices grow transportation, food, medicine and so on.
Power feels the danger and seeks, as usual, administrative methods to suppress initiative, not to let people know the truth. "
Alexei Lord: "No matter what kind of power beware of social protests. But in a democracy has mechanisms to resolve conflicts regulators. Street actions are symptoms, not the causes of the disease. They allow authorities to cure these social disease.
Belarusian authoritarian regime which is in adulthood, by its nature asks adinadushnastsi in society. And here is the beginning of our homeland to cancel subsidies social condition worse. Public image of the guarantor, who had Lukashenko began to blur.
At least some of these criteria may cause a picket protest escalation and the collapse of the regime. Because authorities take preventive measures to prevent this. "
What dangers are protests?
Karbalevich: "It seems that the authorities are afraid of public protest in general, in any matter — or against repeal of benefits, or in defense of Kozulin.
You can guess how quickly the authorities responded to the miners strike Soligorsk actually meet most of their requirements. What are the prerequisites such unusual horror of the public protests? "
Kalyakin: "As for the situation with the miners strike Soligorsk, they just fooled. Changes in the pension miners who wish to make government would not touch those who now works. But their children, who go to work after the mine would be deprived of the current matching criterion regarding pensions.
Authorities fear not only protest, but at least some organized activities, uncontrolled state, all attempts at communication between the opposition and the public. Occurs because the pressure against the opposition parties.
Suspended the activities of the Party of Communists Belarusian. Currently considered the question of eliminating the Belarusian party ladies "Hope." 6 parties have booked. And more power fear of public protest because social issues trevozhut most people. "
Karbalevich: "Certainly, official protest to destroy the myth of the whole people to support the political course of the country chapters. Addition, the authorities fear that at least some public outcry may be stone that causes Levinov. "
Hurt: "Indeed, the authorities fear escalating individual performances in a mass protest. There is a great historical experience of other countries, and also the Belarusian experience.
By the way, specifically Soligorsk miners once their actions actually started the process of democratization in Belarus. Authorities are aware that one "bread revolt" can grow into a revolution — and not a "color".
Overlord: "Many orange devils appeared in sight"
Karbalevich: "In all statesah the world except totalitarian dictatorships, people often protest against something. Often, public actions are massive temper.
But almost always they do not endanger the present government. But the Belarusian control this fear. Maybe there mental problem? These protests are a real danger for the government or contrived? "
Kalyakin: "Different countries have different mechanisms for obtaining and retaining power. Dictatorial regimes in power is not based on real people’s support. They understand, because the fear of public protests, because they can lead to the collapse of the regime.
In democratic countries, governments rely on the majority of the population. There are such shares of the feedback mechanism to the population, because their government is not very afraid. They receive the signal of the existence of difficulties — and solve it.
And in dictatorships is no need for a feedback to the population. There are other mechanisms to retain power — intimidation, pressure, settlement of any alternatives. They seek to remove the external manifestations of problems, but not the problem. "
Hurt: "Mental nuance certainly is. Many orange devils appeared in sight. In the minds of the person who holds all the power in the hands of such horrors are always exaggerated. But such horrors are real and soil. Organized in totalitarian societies, no matter what the protest action in especially when it acquires resonance through the media or as a result of specific people communicate, causing such new shares.
The Belarusian authorities exhausted the resources to could throw a piece of protesters. Here Soligorsk miners thrown — and no more. And the more, the worse. Hence the exaggeration of the threat. "
Kalyakin: "The attention given to the authorities" Soc march "and" European march "shows that the strategy chosen by the United Democratic Forces, rational and can give harsh results."
Karbalevich: "So Makar, the horror of protests stems from the very nature of the existing political regime. Especially this problem exacerbated at the moment when the authorities have less ability to meet the social needs of the population. Because it seems rather weak opposition groped most place the regime. "

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