The climatic anomalies are not surprising

The climatic anomalies are not surprising

Still, many «disaster movies» in large numbers released in recent years, have had a positive impact on humanity. Not in the sense that we are careful with the outside world — and that began to quietly take him «surprises.» When the temperature in California, Nevada and southern Arizona has passed for fifty degrees Celsius (Fahrenheit and the figures are absolutely terrible — 120 and above), the local population, listened to warnings of the authorized bodies, sighed: Well could be worse! And many still do expect that will finally be broken record temperature at Earth’s surface, set July 10, 1913 — then in California Death Valley thermometer showed 56.7 ° C + … Of course, this was an exceptional case, a local thermal extremum — but even a hundred years later, in this era of global warming, it is not yet surpassed.

In general, the beginning of XX century was characterized by a plurality of temperature minima and maxima, «achieve» that manages to just now. On June 27, the highest daily temperature in Moscow was 31,4 ° C — such as it was on this day in 1911 in other cities and countries, records the maximum temperature «Refresh» recently, and someone is just waiting to be «hot days «. For example, in Kiev in the temperature record 39,4 ° C stubbornly holds to July 1936, but Ukrainian meteorologists believe that it will soon fall.

One can argue about the causes of global climate change (warming — is only part of this process, in some parts of the land, on the contrary, as a result it can poholodat), how great — the contribution it makes human activities, but to deny it a fact every year It is becoming increasingly difficult. Recently, one of the most influential groups in the world with the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme, which studies climate change, published a five-year report on the results of their research. For the first time a group of experts consisted of Ukrainian specialists. They tried to answer the question of how our country will change global warming by the middle of the XXI century.

The first conclusion drawn by researchers after studies — with an increase in average global temperature to 2 ° C there will come a point «Climate of no return» and changing weather conditions become irreversible. This threshold may be reached within 50 years. In Ukraine, apparently, warmer even stronger. By the middle of the XXI century, the summer will be hotter, and the duration of the warm season (with daytime temperatures of + 20 ° C and above) will increase by an average of 2-3 weeks. In the southern and eastern areas of the country, as well as in the Crimea in the summer a lot more often than it is now, the temperature will exceed 35 ° C in the shade. Winter is around the country will become milder. The number of days when the temperature drops below zero, will be reduced by 10-15. In the north, east and west of Ukraine will become a normal winter temperatures in the range from +4 to -4 ° C. In this part of sharp differences, when the warm days of spring will give way to frost or heavy snowfall, brought from the northern arctic air masses (in fact, last spring we have had the opportunity to observe the phenomenon with their own eyes).

According to the head of the department of synoptic meteorology Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute Faith Balabukha, the general trend is as follows: the annual rainfall in the south, center and east of Ukraine will increase slightly in the western regions and Transcarpathia — reduced. Periods of severe drought lasting for a month and more, will be replaced by heavy rains, when just a few hours will fall out monthly or bi-monthly rate of moisture. This will inevitably lead to sudden floods with a very strong likelihood of human victims. Very often extreme nature of this rainfall will occur in southern, central and eastern regions, where they will have a very local in nature: in one part of the region, perhaps the flood in the other — the drought. Due to the increasing dry periods will increase the number of fires, especially in the steppe regions of the country. Many small lakes and rivers can dry out completely in the summer.

In the longer term due to climate change, coupled with the influence of the nature of human activity (industry and agriculture) zone of the steppes of Central Ukraine will start to grow, «pushing» the forest and forest-steppe tens of kilometers to the north. But the plains of the steppe Crimea, the Black Sea and the Azov Sea North facing transformation into semi-desert. Persistent drought can not affect the conditions for agriculture in these areas. Out of this situation, obviously, it is the implementation of agricultural technologies already used in arid countries (particularly, humectants tillage). In a more advantageous position will be west and north, where summer precipitation is natural enough. There will be even the possibility for the season to collect two or three crops of vegetables. So, apparently, in general, from climate change likely to win Ukraine and it may even become one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products.

Deputy head of the National Ecological Center of Ukraine Andrei Vasilyuk offers another effective method to adapt to warming — landing belts on the plains of the south, center and east of the country. However, he adds, if a person has the ability to adapt to the «new climate reality», the animal world, this requires much more time, so many representatives of wildlife threatened with extinction. Only a small part of the species found in the south of Ukraine, will be able to survive in the new hot climate or move to cooler areas. On the other hand, our territory will «invade» the present inhabitants of tropical countries. Already, in the Crimea and Kherson region recorded cases of meetings with poisonous spider the Black Widow, and in the eastern regions of the country there was a southern steppe fox (Korsakov), is likely to move there from the North Caucasus. As for the insects, enough to react quickly to changes in the environment, their diversity in the northern regions of Ukraine has grown significantly, and now the neighborhood of Kiev on warm summer evenings «sound» is almost the same as the Black Sea steppes 20-30 years ago. More serious effects of global warming, minimally comparable with the image in «disaster movies» over the next century in Eastern Europe is expected.

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